Over at The Washington Post, Tim Craig writes that both the Gilmore and Marshall campaigns claim to be ahead in the race for the GOP Senate nomination:
RICHMOND — Advisers to former governor James S. Gilmore III claim that he has essentially locked up the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate, but his chief opponent says Gilmore is bluffing because he is on the verge of an embarrassing loss at the state convention next month.
In a campaign directed at a few thousand GOP activists who choose the nominee, Gilmore has been locked in a surprisingly intense struggle with Del. Robert G. Marshall (Prince William). Robert D. “Bob” Berry of Springfield is also running, but Marshall has posed the biggest threat to Gilmore, who earlier this year was not expecting a challenger.
The Virginia GOP convention is not until the last weekend in May, but the convoluted process for selecting the nominee to run against former governor Mark R. Warner (D) has been underway since last month, when Republican county and city committees started meeting to select delegates to the state convention.
Both campaigns claim to be running strong in different parts of the state:
Marshall, a fierce opponent of abortion and tax increases, is said to be running strong among Northern Virginia delegates elected so far.
But based on early returns from the county meetings, Gilmore strategist M. Boyd Marcus said “there really isn’t any doubt” that Gilmore will be the nominee because he is winning big in many rural counties as well as suburban Richmond and Hampton Roads.
(…)
Marshall estimated that he has secured three of every four delegates in Loudoun County as well as a majority in Fairfax County, where activists had until late March to register as delegates. Marshall also expects to rack up big margins in Prince William County, where activists will convene today to choose delegates.
Marshall said he has also snared about half of the delegates in heavily Republican Chesterfield County in suburban Richmond. If true, the Chesterfield results could be a bad sign for Gilmore, who lives in suburban Richmond.
Marshall, apparently, is borrowing from the playbook of another social conservative who surprised the Virginia GOP about 15 years ago:
In 1993, Michael P. Farris surprised many in the party by defeating Bobbie G. Kilberg for the nomination for lieutenant governor. Farris, a home-schooling advocate who lost the general election to Donald S. Beyer Jr., relied on a network of families that home school their children and abortion opponents.
Marshall, who also home-schooled his five children, is employing a similar strategy against Gilmore. Marshall has been critical of Gilmore over his support for abortion rights until the eighth week of a pregnancy. Marshall was also the co-sponsor of a constitutional amendment, which voters approved in 2006, to ban gay marriage and civil unions.
“We are working from the grass roots up,” said Steve Waters, Marshall’s campaign manager. “A lot of our people are working beneath Gilmore’s radar.”
Of course, Farris went on to lose in 1993, and it’s hard to believe right now that Marshall would do any better in November against Mark Warner than Jim Gilmore is doing at the present time.
The irony in all of this is that Gilmore would likely beat Marshall in a primary, but went the convention route because it was believed that his primary opponent would have been Tom Davis.
