Below The Beltway

Three new polls show Hillary Clinton regaining a strong lead in Pennsylvania one week before the primary.

First the latest Quinnipac University poll shows Clinton with a six point lead and a sold core of support:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has stalled Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s drive in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and holds a 50 - 44 percent lead among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, unchanged from April 8 results.

There was no noticeable in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama’s ‘bitter’ comments.

In this latest survey of 2,103 likely Democratic primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University, 26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee. A look at other groups shows:

* White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
* Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent;
* Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week;
* Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week;
* Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55 - 40 percent;
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.

“Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama’s drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Rasumussen, meanwhile, has Clinton nine points ahead:

With a week to go until Pennsylvania voters render their final verdict, Hillary Clinton has opened a nine-percentage point lead over Barack Obama in the Keystone State. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton now attracts 50% of the vote while Obama earns 41%.

That’s a slight improvement for Clinton who led by five percentage points a week ago.

Among voters from households where someone owns a gun, Clinton leads by seventeen points. Voters from other households are more evenly divided.

Clinton leads among voters who say faith and religion are Somewhat or Very Important. Obama leads among those who say such topics are Not Very Important or Not at All Important.

Sixty percent (60%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters in Pennsylvania say that it is Very Important for the government to enforce the borders and reduce illegal immigration. Among these voters, Clinton leads by sixteen.

Barack Obama’s “bitter” remarks, on the other hand, seem to have a mixed impact:

In Pennsylvania, 75% of Likely Primary Voters have heard of the remarks. Thirty-five percent (35%) agree and 51% disagree. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Obama supporters agree with the comments while 25% disagree. Among Clinton supporters, 73% disagree.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) say that the comments reflect an elitist view of small town America. Forty-eight percent (48%) disagree. Most Clinton voters (57%) believe Obama’s comments reflect an elitist view while Obama voters overwhelmingly reject that notion.

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 72%. Those figures are little changed from a week ago.

Finally, the latest SurveyUSA poll has Hillary with a double digit lead:

If the Pennsylvania primary to select a Democratic nominee for president were held Tuesday, a week before the actual primary, Hillary Rodham Clinton would defeat Barack Obama by double-digit figures, a new SurveyUSA poll found.

The fourth SurveyUSA tracking poll, released exclusively for NBC 10 and three other television stations throughout the state, concluded that the contest is “not necessarily tightening, nor is it considered a “tight race.”

It concluded that 54 percent would vote for Clinton and 40 percent would vote for Obama. Three percent chose the “other” category.

With a week to go before the voting actually begins, and given how this race has gone from the beginning, how this will turn out is anyone’s guess.

This much is true. Clinton needs a big win in Pennsylvania to maintain a credible campaign. If she has a small win and then loses big in North Carolina and Indiana two weeks later, then the logic for continuing becomes harder to accept. If by some chance she loses Pennsylvania, then the race is over and she just needs to accept it.