Notwithstanding the debate on Wednesday, it’s looking less and less likely that Hillary Clinton is going to score the kind of big win she needs in Pennsylvania next Tuesday.
First, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama within three points of Clinton:
The Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania is getting even closer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Thursday night, the night following a nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.
Obama’s support appears to be a bit softer than Clinton’s at this point in time. Six percent (6%) of Obama voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Only 2% of Clinton supporters say the same.
Overall, with less than a week to go, 9% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided, 3% say there’s a good chance they will change their mind, and another 12% might change their mind. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Clinton leads 53% to 47%.
Along similar lines, the latest Zogby poll has Clinton with a four point lead:
UTICA, New York – New York Democrat Hillary Clinton had a good day in the Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll ahead of Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, following a strong debate performance in Philadelphia Wednesday night, and now holds a 47% to 43% advantage over Barack Obama of Illinois.
The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 16-17, 2008, showed that 10% were either undecided or supported someone else.
The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 602 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The race appears stable, as Clinton retained a sizable lead in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama continues to lead by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points.
While Clinton may still win Pennsylvania, it’s looking more and more likely that her game plan is falling apart:
PHILADELPHIA — With Sen. Hillary Clinton widely expected to win Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary on Tuesday, most of the focus is on the margin. Anything less than a double-digit victory could solidify the perception that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the inevitable Democratic nominee, sparking a flow of superdelegates to his side.
But even if Sen. Clinton wins strongly, she still will remain behind in delegates, so her goal must be to change the dynamic of the race, raising doubts about Sen. Obama’s ability to carry states like Pennsylvania and lifting her chances of replicating the win in Indiana on May 6.
Most important, a strong Clinton victory would send a message to the superdelegates — whose support she needs to win the nomination — or might at least persuade them to stay neutral longer to see if a similar pattern plays out through May.
The prospect that Sen. Clinton will win by only a small margin appears to be growing. She has seen her roughly 10-point lead of a month ago erode to as little as one percentage point. A Zogby poll of likely voters conducted this week showed Sen. Clinton ahead with 45% compared with 44% for Sen. Obama. Other polls give her a wider lead.
The question is, if that doesn’t happen, will Clinton do the honorable thing and drop out ?
My guess is no.
