A new poll on the Indiana Democratic Primary shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama virtually tied with less than a week ago, and, more importantly, it shows that Republicans and Independents are likely to decide the winner:
In the head-to-head matchup, Obama has a 47-45 lead, well within the 4.1 percent margin of error. The poll was the result of two scientific surveys: the first that included 600 likely registered voters and the second that consisted of 600 likely Democratic primary election voters. The total statewide survey included 40 percent Democrats and 50 percent Republicans along with 10 percent independent voters.
There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the “Obamacans” as the Illinois senator likes to call them - earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party’s performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the Iraq War - and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John McCain in the November election.
Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republicans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor Obama 54-38 percent. “The Democratic primary is going to be decided by non-Democrats,” said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. “To be determined is which group - Republicans or independents - are going to decide this race.” An indicator as to the kind of havoc Republican voters could create comes on the Iraq War issue. Those favoring immediate withdrawal favor Obama 49-46 percent. Those favoring the current troop levels favor Clinton 58-39 percent, but, Davis notes, “That number is strongly influenced by Republican crossovers.”
That, my friends, is the price you pay for having an open primary.
H/T: Liberal Values
April 30th, 2008 at 8:29 am
[...] comes as its effect becomes crystal-clear in Indiana (Howey Politics, h/t Below the Beltway, emphasis added): According to the Howey-Gauge Poll conducted April 23-24, entirely after the [...]
May 5th, 2008 at 8:37 am
so who are you guys voting for? it’s still clinton, right? if she loses indy, it’s over.