Two new polls show that the reappearance of Jeremiah Wright has had an impact on Barack Obama’s standing among Democrats.
First, the New York Times reports that Obama’s aura of inevitability has dimmed somewhat:
WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama’s aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished after his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and amid the furor over his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, largely before Mr. Obama’s news conference on Tuesday, in which he denounced his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and may not have fully captured the impact of the controversy or Mr. Obama’s response.
But the survey found that Mr. Obama, whose lead in the race for the delegates needed to secure the nomination has given him a commanding position over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton since February, is now perceived to be in a much tighter fight. Fifty-one percent of Democratic primary voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party’s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say he is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago.
Mr. Obama, of Illinois, still holds an edge over Mrs. Clinton, of New York, on several key measures; for example, 46 percent of the Democratic primary voters said he remained their choice for the nomination, while 38 percent preferred Mrs. Clinton, down from 43 percent last month, and she has lost support among men in recent weeks. Mr. Obama also has an advantage over Mrs. Clinton in ratings on honesty and integrity and in being less beholden to special interest groups.
But a month of upheaval — including a nearly 10-point loss to Mrs. Clinton in Pennsylvania — has taken a toll, and not just on Mr. Obama: 56 percent of Democrats described their party as divided. In contrast, 60 percent of Republicans see their party as unified, a striking turnaround from the Republican turmoil at the start of the primary season.
And a new Fox News poll shows that Obama’s favorability ratings have declined significantly:
Nearly half of Democrats (48 percent) think Hillary Clinton has a better chance of beating John McCain in November — 10 percentage points higher than the 38 percent who think Barack Obama can win, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday. This represents a significant shift from March, when Democrats said Obama was the candidate more likely to beat McCain.
Democrats continue to favor Clinton as their party’s leader, albeit narrowly: 44 percent want her to win the nomination and 41 percent want Obama. Last month Clinton was preferred by 2 percentage points.
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The ongoing controversy over Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, appears to have damaged how Americans view Obama. His favorable rating is now 47 percent, down 7 percentage points since February when 54 percent had a positive view of him. As may be expected, his unfavorable rating went up from 33 percent to 42 percent today.
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The decline in Obama’s favorable rating also is evident among Democrats: 63 percent have a favorable opinion now, down from 73 percent in February. For Clinton, 73 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of her, up from 71 percent.
Obama continues to have a 3% lead in the Realclear Politics average, but the trend since last week seems to show a clear tilt toward Clinton, for the moment:
It will take at least another week to tell if Monday’s speech has had an impact.
