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Virginia Senate: Warner 55% Gilmore 37%

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Mark Warner continued to maintain a commanding lead over likely Republican nominee Jim Gilmore:

No surprises in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Virginia Senate race–Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Jim Gilmore 55% to 37%. That’s little changed from late March.

In fact, this is the fifth consecutive survey to find Warner leading Gilmore by a 15-20 percentage point margin. In all five surveys, Warner’s support has ranged from 53% to 57%. Gilmore’s support has also been consistent, ranging from 37% to 39%. Rasmussen Markets data gives Warner an 85.0 % chance of winning this race in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Warner is viewed favorably by 66% of Virginia voters, Gilmore by 48%.

The two men are competing for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Warner (no relation to the Democratic candidate). Almost from the moment the incumbent Senator announced his retirement, the Democrats have been favored to win this race.

This is consistent with polls that Rasmussen released in October, January, February, and April; all of which showed Warner with at least a 15 point lead over his fellow former Governor.

And that’s only one part of the bad news that Republicans may face in the Senate this year:

[T]he number of Republican seats that might be taken by Democrats in November has grown significantly. In addition to Virginia, at least nine other Republican Senate seats are in play including in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, North Carolina, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky and Texas.

At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Democrats come out of November with a 54-56 seat majority in the Senate.

2 Responses to “Virginia Senate: Warner 55% Gilmore 37%”

  1. [...] analysis seems spot on, especially when you consider the fact that every single poll so far has shown Mark Warner with a near 20 point lead over Gilmore. Moreover, the fact that national [...]

  2. [...] Sabato does have a point. There is no denying the poll numbers, all of which show Warner with a seemingly insurmountable lead in a year when Republicans in general are already in [...]

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