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Would Michigan And Florida Really Matter ?

by @ 8:41 am on May 12, 2008. Filed under 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics

The Clinton campaign continues to hint that it intends to engage in the so-called nuclear option — fighting to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations as allocated based on the results of their January primaries.

But, would it really make a difference.

Here’s where the delegate count stands today:

Pledged Delegates

  1. Barack Obama — 1,591 delegates
  2. Hillary Clinton — 1,426 delegates

Obama +165

Total Delegates

  1. Barack Obama — 1,867 delegates (158 needed to win)
  2. Hillary Clinton — 1,698 delegates (327 needed to win)

Obama +169

If we go by the results of the January 15th primary, and give all the uncommitted delegates to Obama, the Michigan allocation would look like this:

  1. Hillary Clinton — 73 delegates
  2. Barack Obama — 55 delegates

Clinton +18

And the allocation from Florida’s January 29th primary would look like this:

  1. Hillary Clinton — 105 delegates
  2. Barack Obama — 67 delegates
  3. John Edwards — 13 delegates

Clinton +38

Meaning that the total delegate count would now look like this:

  1. Barack Obama —- 1,989 delegates (220 needed to win)
  2. Hillary Clinton —- 1,867 delegates (342 needed to win)

Obama +122

In other words, even if Hillary got all the delegates she was “entitled to” from Michigan and Florida, she would still trial Obama by more than 100 delegates in the total delegate count.

Finally, yesterday, I did a rough projection of the remaining primaries through the end of may and came up with this:

1. Barack Obama — 1,913 delegates (112 needed to win)
2. Hillary Clinton — 1,772 delegates (253 needed to win)

Obama +141

If we work form the totals that include Michigan and Florida, it would look something like this on May 31st:

  1. Barack Obama — 2,045 delegates (164 needed to win)
  2. Hillary Clinton — 1,942 delegates (267 needed to win)

Obama +103

After that, there are only 86 pledged delegates left to be chosen and only one primary, Puerto Rico, where Clinton has a chance to achieving a West Virginia/Kentucky-style blowout victory. And meanwhile, the superdelegates continue to flock to Obama.

Most importantly, though, is one simple fact — even if Clinton & Company did succeed in their nuclear option and seat the Michigan and Florida delegations, she would still be behind in pledged and total delegates.

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2 Responses to “Would Michigan And Florida Really Matter ?”

  1. [...] made much the same argument several times over the past several weeks here, here, and here.   [...]

  2. [...] Hillary Clinton tried to argue that seating Michigan and Florida would put her in the delegate lead. Well, that isn’t the case. [...]

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