Now that the Supreme Court of California has ruled that laws against gay marriage violate the state’s Constitution, speculation has already begun about the political impact of the decision:
[T]he decision by the California Supreme Court on Thursday overturning the state’s ban on same-sex marriage seems likely to put the issue back onto the national political stage for the time being. In the process, it should offer a test of whether the issue is resonant in American politics or whether it has fallen to the side of the road, as many Democrats and some Republicans say.
But this isn’t 2004 and there’s considerable doubt that voters will tolerate a campaign focused on social issues when the economy, gas prices, and the War in Iraq are all on the front page:
There is considerable debate whether the marriage issue helped Republican candidates in 2004. And it seems questionable if voters are going to find it compelling this year, at a time when the country is facing a prolonged war, an ailing economy and skyrocketing gasoline prices, the issues that Mr. McCain and the two Democratic candidates are confronting on the campaign trail every day.
“At best, it doesn’t move voters, and at worst for Republicans, it moves them against them,” said Matthew Dowd, who was chief strategist for Mr. Bush’s campaign in 2004. “Not so much on the issue, but it becomes, ‘Why are we having a discussion on this issue when we should talking about things that matter, like the economy, or health care, or the war?’ ”
This issue may excite the conservative base, but the rest of the electorate arguably doesn’t care about it quite as much.
May 17th, 2008 at 10:20 am
In 2004, the marjority of the electorate did not care about the issue either, according to most pundits. Yet, the issue cost the Democrats Ohio and perhaps other states. Nothing has changed. This issue’s explosive return will make Obama’s already difficult challenge even more of an uphill climb. The religious right will abandon its pouting and return to the political arena with a vengence. You have to wonder what the Cal. Supreme Court was thinking when it released its opinion now of all times. The only thing more interesting than that question is the bizarre state of denial the leading political commentators seem to be in. Even the most insightful do not appear to want to acknowledge that this issue, which they obviously think is silly, has come back and will profoundly affect what happens in the presidential and congressinal elections this fall. Look out.