According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, former Georgia Congressman and candidate for the Libertarian Party’s Presidential nomination Bob Barr could end being John McCain’s Ralph Nader:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown a very close race between John McCain and Barack Obama. For most of the past week, they have been essentially tied with typically 4% of voters saying they prefer some other candidate and a similar number remaining undecided.
A separate survey found slightly different results when third-party candidates were mentioned by name. In a four-way race, Obama earns 42% of the vote, McCain 38%, Bob Barr 6% and Ralph Nader 4%. Given those options, 11% were undecided. Barr and Nader were mentioned as candidates of the Libertarian Party and the Green Party respectively.
Barr picked up 7% of the Republican vote, 5% of the Democratic vote, and 5% of the unaffiliated vote. participants to choose between Barack Obama, John McCain and some other candidate.
Nader got 1% of the Republican vote, 3% of the Democratic vote, and 8% support from those not affiliated with either major party.
What would be interesting to know is what Barr’s strength might be in battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Michigan where a percentage point or two could decide the election in November. Or, for that matter, whether Barr might garner enough support in his home state to shift Georgia’s 15 Electoral Votes into the Democratic column, an outcome which could spell the end for the McCain campaign.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Other than you, almost nobody on the planet knows anything about Barr. He will go the same route as Harry Brown, and the other unknown Libertarian candidates of the past. On election day, he will not be on every state’s ballot and in the end, he will tally less than one percent.
The sad fact is that no matter what a great guy he might be, unless he has the billions of a Ross Perot behind him, his candidacy will be of no consequence.
Perhaps his end game is to go the Libertarian route this time, then return to the Republican Party and try to re-capture the support of the Paulistinians in 2012.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Barr is different from previous Libertarian candidates because he can attract libertarian-conservatives from the GOP who are fed with with the last seven years of nonsense and see McCain for the fraud that he is.
It doesn’t take much. A few thousand votes in Florida, Ohio, or Virginia could decide this election.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:24 am
If (when) McCain stumbles or his temper explodes in public, Barr could move into the lead.
May 20th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Bradley,
Not likely at all