Below The Beltway

According to two Republican strategists, the GOP may be on the verge of a General Election disaster comparable to Franklin Roosevelt’s trouncing of Herbert Hoover in 1932:

Two Republican strategists, David Johnson of Strategic Vision in Atlanta and Holly Robichaud of Tuesday Associates in Boston, have penned a memo of advice for Republicans in the U.S. House, in which they say that the GOP is in the deepest hole it’s seen since the Great Depression.

The core of the problem, they say, is the inability of congressional Republicans to escape the shadow of George W. Bush.

To make a long story short, Republicans, from the nominee on down, need to completely and totally disassociate themselves from a President who is on the verge of going down in public memory along with men like Herbert Hoover and Richard Nixon. And it needs to be done not only personally, but philosophically.

George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism was really nothing more than Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society on Roger Clemens’ steroids. The size, scope, and power of the Federal Government today is greater than it was on January 19, 2001, and the nation’s future looks far worse today than it did back then. Not all of it is Bush’s fault, but a good deal of it is and, this being politics, the general public blames it all on the President and his party.

The entire memo is below the fold, with appropriately alarming and cogent sections highlighted.

To: House Republican Leadership

From: David E. Johnson, Strategic Vision, LLC and Holly Robichaud, Tuesday Associates

Re: Rebuilding The Republican Brand and Surviving The 2008 Election

Date: May 22, 2008

The Republican brand and identity with voters is at its lowest point since 1932 during the depth of the Great Depression. To compare the Party’s standing even to the depth of Watergate or the debacle of 1964 is to understate the situation.

In 1974, following the resignation of Richard Nixon, while the Republican Party was demoralized and the Democrats made key gains, the voting public was angry at Richard Nixon and his subordinates and sought to punish Republicans for Nixon’s misdeeds. By 1976, however Republicans and Nixon were not synonymous and the seeds for a Republican revival had been planted.

In 1964, despite attempts by George Romney, Nelson Rockefeller, and William Scranton to disassociate the Republican brand from Barry Goldwater, who had been unfairly painted as an extremist by his primary competitors and Lyndon Johnson, voters equated Republicans with extremism and racism in regards to the issue of war and peace and civil rights. Yet by 1966, the Republican image had rebounded due to Democratic missteps and stray Republicans and Republican leaning voters returning to the Party.

That is not the case in 2008. The Republican image has not rebounded and the Party continues to suffer not only among Independents but among core Republican constituencies. The devastating defeat in the Mississippi 1st District was not an aberration but rather an indicator of what could happen not merely in marginal districts but safe Republican districts.

The reason that the Party has not rebounded even marginally from 2006 is that it continues to be identified with George W. Bush. This invokes the comparison to 1932 and the midterm elections of 1934 and general election of 1936.

Democrats were able to exploit the Great Depression to become the majority Party in America for the first time since the Civil War by identifying the Republican Party with Herbert Hoover in the minds and hearts of Americans. They were successfully able to equate Republicans with Hoover very much as Democrats are tying Republicans at all levels with George W. Bush.

Indeed invoking Ronald Reagan, as is being done today, has echoes of Republicans in the 1930’s invoking Calvin Coolidge rather than mention Herbert Hoover. Invoking Ronald Reagan now will do more for Republicans than invoking Calvin Coolidge did Alf Landon and Republicans in 1934 and 1936. This is not to say that Republicans must run from conservative principles, rather they must re-embrace them and again to convince voters that Republicans are true conservatives.

The first step for Republican recovery must begin in distancing itself from President Bush. The Party has been viewed as the conservative Party since the advent of the New Deal. Indeed, part of President Bush’s initial appeal in 2000 was that he was a conservative in the tradition of Ronald Reagan. This view no longer holds among Republicans.

In key states that Strategic Vision, LLC has polled in, less than ten percent of Republicans view George W. Bush as a conservative and this has been steady for three years. As seen in the following from recent polling:

Do you view George W. Bush as a conservative in the mold of Ronald Reagan?

State Yes No Undecided

Florida 8% 78% 14%

Georgia 8% 80% 12%

Indiana 6% 76% 18%

Iowa 6% 73% 21%

Michigan 6% 75% 19%

Missouri 7% 79% 14%

New Jersey 8% 77% 15%

Pennsylvania 8% 81% 11%

Ohio 7% 76% 17%

Wisconsin 7% 79% 14%

Washington 6% 81% 13%

These responses show that even among strong Republican voters, President Bush is no longer seen as the conservative that he was billed as in 2000. More ominously for Republican candidates and incumbents these voters do not see a difference between the President and Republicans in Congress.

This parallels again Herbert Hoover and the Republican standing of the 1930’s rather than Watergate or 1964 when voters punished the Party because of an individual but rapidly returned the fold. These conservatives are not at this time returning to the Republican banner.

To recapture these voters and reinvigorate them, Republicans in Congress must disassociate themselves from the President on key conservative issues. They must demonstrate that the Republican Party is the true conservative Party rather than the Bush Party which it has been branded.

Even more alarming is that the Republican base continues to be demoralized. This low morale among Republicans which has been reflected in turnout in the primaries and fundraising reflects an even more disturbing analogy - that of the Tory Party in Great Britain following the election of Tony Blair and New Labour in 1997. To further this analogy, just as the Tories hopes that New Labour would become ‘Old Labour’ once elected so Republicans hoped that the Democrats would revert back to form after 2006. With this not happening, morale among rank and file voters has sunk.

Indeed, it is not merely among Republicans that Congressional Republicans have been hurt but also among Independents who consider themselves slightly right of center. These voters believe based upon polling that the Republican Party no longer believes in core conservative values. These voters are still very much in play as they are and the country as a whole continues to be right of center.

Yet President Bush and Congressional Republican identification with the President has allowed this demographic to either move into the Democratic fold as seen in Democratic victories in Republican leaning districts or these voters have stayed at home.

Quite simply put many Republicans and most voters are already looking beyond the Bush Presidency. Even more important to remember is that these voters are in play at this moment. For Republicans the concern is not so much that Republican voters will exodus the Party, although that is a possibility but rather they will stay at home.

Beyond the President’s problems, the Republican brand is being hurt because many voters including the Republican base do not believe that the Party has learned the lessons from 2006. Despite the stunning losses in 2006, voters do not believe that the Party has made adjustments or done a mea culpa and begun returning to core Republican principles.

In a corporation, after losses such as the Party suffered, at the very least there would be public apologies to the stockholders and a massive public relations campaign designed to show the change and put the company on offense, at the most extreme there would be a complete housecleaning of leadership.

The final image problem the Republican brand is suffering is a perception fostered by the media of being intolerant. The media has assisted in helping Democrats by saying that the Republican Party is closed to moderates while Democrats are now open to conservatives such as Heath Schuler, Travis Childers, and others. This turns off swing voters who may be conservative on pocketbook or defense issues but more moderate on social issues. Another key issue to the base in which the media and Democrats have cast Republicans as intolerant to great success has been immigration reform. While this issue remains a fissure issue, Democrats have been able with the media’s assistance to paint Republicans as anti-Hispanic and against all immigration. A key message that has been missing in this argument is that the Party is against illegal immigration but for legal immigration.

Having assessed the Republican image, there is some good news, the Democratic image while better than the Republican image still suffers in Congressional approval numbers. Voters are not yet sold on the Democratic Party and they have yet to solidify voter loyalty. This will not be enough to save and revive the Republican brand. Even with poor Congressional numbers, as long as the Republican brand is as mired as it is, the Party faces the prospect of losing between twenty to thirty seats in November.

To begin recovering the Republican brand in order to avoid such a sweep, a definite public relations and strategic marketing needs to be done. Congressional Republicans must show core policy differences from the President and not be afraid to combat him on policy issues. Congressional Republicans must show clearly to Republican voters and Republican leaning Independents that they are charting a different course from the Administration and moving away from the President on fundamental issues where voters feel he has strayed. The message to voters must be that Congressional Republicans are not the same as President Bush. If this is not done immediately, than voters will continue to equate the two as the same even after the President has left Washington and thus consigning Republicans to at least a decade out of Party.

The Republican leadership needs to emphasize to voters that it understands the reasons that voters have been rejecting it and apologizes for past mistakes. Congressional Republicans must pay more than lip service to the idea of change but rather demonstrate what a positive Republican change will entail. It must continue to crack down on members who appear tainted with corruption to regain the good government image that voters associated with the Republican brand. There must be a zero tolerance for even the slightest hint of corruption.

Congressional Republicans must show that they want the support of all voters and are not closed off to moderate voters. They need to remember the Reagan mantra of it is better to have someone who supports me, 80% to 90% of the time. In doing this they must abandon some of the harsher rhetoric they are using on such issues as immigration. They need to remember that being for legal immigration while against illegal immigration registers better with voters. In reaching out to these voters, Congressional Republicans would be advised to present a platform similar to the Contract With America.

Congressional Republicans must emphasize that the Party is not out of ideas to make the country better and improve individual’s daily lives. The Party has to demonstrate again that it for positive change rather than just opposed to the Democratic alternative. Yet, the message also must be of the harm that Democratic policies are doing to the nation and the economy.

Missing or lost for much of the past several years is the harmful consequences that Congressional Democrats are creating. This means attacking Democrats beyond the Iraq issue. Over the past year, Republicans have lost their advantages on dealing with the war on terror and defense, as well as the economy. Only by presenting a two tier approach can we recover.

Finally in getting the Republican message out, we must incorporate new viral marketing. This is definitely the new wave of communications. Even more interesting is that the fastest group of people using, online news outlets, blogs, and podcasts ate voters aged 45 and up. To successfully target voters, we need to use strategic email blasts, online chats and blogs, as well as constant podcasts.

With a highly motivated base and a shared common vision, Democrats are dominating us in fundraising. They are doing this through traditional methods as well as using new Web 2.0 and Web 3.0 in which we are far behind. We need to catch up! How can you overcome their dominance? By always remaining aggressive on the phone, increasing your event schedule, and maximizing your direct mail and email programs. Do not mistakenly rely on the PAC community. They are now forced to support the Democratic majority which means less money for Republicans.

First and foremost remain diligent in dialing for dollars. Don’t just call former high dollar donors. Reach out to new prospects. Always be prospecting because 12% of your list will go bad over 3 months.

Due to our base supporters being disenfranchised, direct mail response has dropped more than 40% over the past 2 years. Here are a few suggestions for improving your rate of response.

• Have a third party sign the letter on your behalf.

• Be creative. The standard #10 letter package is not going to cut through mailbox clutter this year.

• Include facts and figures to not only back up your arguments but also to prove that you have remained true to your word. For example, if you have an outstanding record with Americans for Tax Reform or the National Taxpayer Union, make sure to mention your ratings.

• Solicit smaller lists. The more targeted you can be with your message the better the results. After speaking to a local chamber, send them a fundraising letter. Try to hand address whenever possible.

To increase fundraising, you should be event heavy. People still want to be seen by their Congressman so be aggressive in your planning. Don’t neglect to do house parties. Not only do they easily net a profit, but they also generate new donors. Finally we need to begin using Web 2.0 and Web 3.0 strategies far better.

Our target voters aged 45 and older are used to paying bills online, purchasing online, and acquiring news online. We need to be using email marketing, RSS feeds, and online events to raise money. We need to be using conservative websites far more effectively in raising money. Quite frankly, we need to catch up and think anew with online fundraising or the disparity in fundraising will grow even greater.