Below The Beltway

The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meets over the weekend to figure out what to do about Florida and Michigan, and things aren’t looking good for Hillary:

A Democratic Party rules committee has the authority to seat some delegates from Michigan and Florida but not fully restore the two states as Hillary Rodham Clinton wants, according to party lawyers.

Democratic National Committee rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, the party’s legal experts wrote in a 38-page memo.

But even that doesn’t mean that the Committee will have an easy job on Saturday:

The analysis said there are two options to include half the delegations — either allow half the number of delegates from each state into the convention or allow the full delegations to attend, but give them each half a vote. “The rule does not actually specify whether the reduction is to be accomplished on the basis of delegate positions or delegate votes,” the analysis said, giving committee members some justification for sending the entire delegations with half-votes as some leaders in the states want.

The analysis also underscores a prickly problem: If the Rules and Bylaws Committee decides to restore any of the states’ delegates, there is not a simple way to divide them between Clinton and Barack Obama.

That’s especially true in Michigan, where Obama had his name pulled from the ballot. He didn’t have the option of removing his name in Florida, but all the candidates signed a pledge not to campaign in either state.

Whatever the distribution is, though, it’s likely to make Hillary Clinton’s job even harder than it already is.

Let’s look at the numbers to see why.

Here is the current delegate count according to RealClearPolitics:

Pledged Delegates

1. Barack Obama — 1,659 delegates
2. Hillary Clinton — 1,499 delegates

Obama +160

Total Delegates

1. Barack Obama —- 1,977 delegates (49 delegates needed to clinch nomination)
2. Hillary Clinton —- 1,781 delegates (245 delegates needed to clinch nomination)

Obama +197

And here’s what the numbers would look like if we include all of the pledged delegates from Florida and Michigan:

Total Delegates

1. Barack Obama — 2,110 delegates (91 delegates needed to clinch nomination)
2. Hillary Clinton — 1,959 delegates (251 delegates needed to clinch nomination)

Obama +151

Cutting the numbers in half for Florida and Michigan would look like this:

Total Delegates

1. Barack Obama — 2,048 delegates (70 delegates needed to win)
2. Hillary Clinton — 1,870 delegates (248 delegates needed to win)

Obama +178

There are 95 delegates remaining to be chosen from Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. In addition, there are 197 superdelegates who haven’t declared a preference (not including superdelegates from Michigan and Florida whose status is unclear), although there are rumors that Obama’s campaign is holding back on announcing a slew of superdelegate endorsements until the weekend in order to blunt any positive spin Clinton might get from an expected win in Puerto Rico. That’s a grand total of 292 delegates left to pick from.

Depending on which of the scenarios outlined above you work from, Hillary Clinton would need to win anywhere from 84% to 85% to 86% of the remaining delegates.

That simply isn’t going to happen.

Obama, on the other hand, only needs to pick up another 17% 24% to 31% of the remaining delegates.

Which one do you think is more likely to happen ?