Below The Beltway

At The Next Right, Jon Henke divides the Republican coalition in to three basic factions:

Progressive Republicans (aka: Teddy Roosevelt Republicans) - These are the Republicans who may be solid allies on many issues, but who also seem to want a Great Leader who can do Big Things. They are Crusader Conservatives - generally reliable on limited government, but willing to go off on Big Government crusades.

Illustrative Quote: “The object of government is the welfare of the people,” (Teddy Roosevelt)

Goldwater Republicans - These Republicans vote for limited government, individual liberty and strong defense; they may have various opinions on social issues, but they subsume those views to the goal at hand: limiting government

Illustrative Quote: “I have little interest in streamlining government or in making it more efficient, for I mean to reduce its size. I do not undertake to promote welfare, for I propose to extend freedom.” (Goldwater

Bush Republicans - these voters may or may not care about limited government, but they’re willing to accept Big Government, so long as the government does socially conservative things. (See: Mike Huckabee, Christian Democracy)

Illustrative Quote: “Prayers can help, and so can the government.” - President Bush, February 6, 2008

The Progressive Republicans, Henke contends, are “in the driver’s seat” in the GOP at the moment, epitomized most notably by John McCain’s ascendancy, but also because nobody else has the strength or the will to step forward right now:

Big Ideas beats factions with no attention-grabbing ideas. At this point, no other faction has the policy ideas and grassroots support to challenge for leadership. But that position can only be maintained by a charismatic leader for a short time. It is not sustainable, At some point, the other coalitions will see to fill the core policy vacuums McCain may leave open.

That’s true, I think, mostly because McCain doesn’t really have a core philosophy that could serve as the basis for a coalition within the Republican Party. If he wins in November, he will govern in the same haphazard manner he’s acted as a Senator over the years, without a real core set of values about the proper role of government (his rhetoric notwithstanding). If he loses, he will be a footnote in history equivalent to Bob Dole after his loss in the 1996 election, and the battle for the future will be left to others.

First, there are the Goldwater Republicans:

They have been relegated to lesser roles, or turned into Status Quo Republicans. While a few still make appropriate noises on the Hill, a lack of publicly appealing, political viable ideas for limiting government has rendered them mostly impotent. The Goldwater Republicans have the greatest opportunity, however, because it is they who will have the most compelling arguments against Democratic and/or McCain poliices, and it is they who will need to begin driving a narrative about the impact of Big Government poicy.

The issues, as always, is that every movement needs a spokesman, and it’s hard to see who among the Republicans in Congress could rise to that role. John Shadegg and Tom Coburn are candidates for that role, if they want it.

And, finally, there are the Bush Republicans:

They’re not gone yet, and they could make a quick comeback with a charismatic candidate. Like, you know, Mike Huckabee. If they do that, it will mark the GOP’s turn towards the European Christian Democracy style of political parties.

And the end of the GOP as a credible voice for limited government.

The battle, it seems, is joined. At this point, it doesn’t even matter who wins the General Election in November. Someone is going to have to rise up as the voice of the loyal opposition.