Here’s what the Electoral College Map looks like today, according to RealClearPolitics:
Toss-up states are those where the “poll of polls” average margin is under 5% for either candidate. Eliminate that and give the toss-up state to the candidate currently leading, and the map would look like this:
And, if that happens, Barack Obama would be come the 44th President of the United States, with an Electoral College majority similar to those that Bush got in 2000 and 2004.
There are several interesting points that these maps bring up:
- Once again, Ohio is going to be a battleground in 2008 as it was in 2004. The most recent polls show the candidates in a statistical dead heat in the Buckeye State.
- Pennsylvania also looks to be competitive, with recent polls showing Obama’s lead to be barely above the margin of error.
- Virginia also looks like it will be a battleground state as the most recent polls show the candidates in the same statistical tie as in Ohio. This is why Obama choose to fire the opening shots of his General Election campaign in the Old Dominion, and supports recent speculation that the state could turn Democratic for the first time since 1964.
- Two states where Bob Barr has polled above 6 percent recently, Georgia and North Carolina, are in, or close to being in the toss-up category.
- McCain’s lead in Mississippi seems in danger of slipping below 10%, which could mean that Obama is competitive there.
- John McCain has a lead in Michigan, but it’s within the MOE.
- Florida looks like it will be solidly in McCain’s column in November.
Notwithstanding talk of a “50 state strategy” it’s fairly clear where Obama needs to concentrate. Pennsylvania needs to stay in the Democratic column as does Ohio. However, the Buckeye State might not matter if Obama can win a states like Virginia and Missouri.
It’s going to be an interesting five months.
As with the Intrade numbers and the national polls, we’ll look at this again in a month.
June 7th, 2008 at 12:16 am
One very interesting scenario would be if Ohio and Michigan switched leaving both candidates with 269 EC votes and taking the outcome to the House. This would essentially give the presidency to Obama with little uncertainty, but would be yet another historically significant aspect of this election.
July 10th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
[...] One month ago, Barack Obama held a slight lead over John McCain in Electoral College votes based on state polling. [...]