As I noted earlier today, Barack Obama’s appearances in Virginia yesterday were a clear signal that his campaign views the Old Dominion as a state it can win in November.
In today’s Washington Post, Tim Craig previews what that battle might look like:
Of the states that President Bush won handily in 2004, Virginia might be one of Obama’s best pickup opportunities, Democrats said. Since Bush’s first election in 2000, the occupant of the governor’s mansion changed from red to blue — and stayed blue. A popular GOP senator lost his seat to Webb, and the state Senate turned Democratic. Democrats also point out that Virginia was the first state to elect an African American governor, L. Douglas Wilder (D) in 1989.
“The one thing you’ve got to remember, Obama doesn’t have to get all the white, working-class people in Virginia,” said Dave “Mudcat” Saunders, a Roanoke-based Democratic strategist. “He’s just got to clip off a few of them.”
Not mentioned in the article is another factor that could well help Obama in the fall; a reverse coat-tails effect whereby a strong showing by Mark Warner helps Obama against McCain. While it’s possible that many people who vote for Warner in November will split their ballot and vote for McCain, a strong showing by Warner could bring enough votes to Obama to make the state far more competitive than it might otherwise might be.
More importantly, though, Obama doesn’t need to win in Virginia for the state to have an impact on the race:
Even if he comes up short on Election Day, Democrats say, Obama will force McCain to spend more time and money in Virginia, which could increase Obama’s chances for success in other battleground states.
Every dollar that McCain has to spend in Virginia to keep the state red is a dollar he can’t spend in Pennslyvania or Ohio, where this election is likely to be decided.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:04 am
[...] who did show up and it shouldn’t blind the Virginia GOP to the very likely possibility that the fight for the Old Dominion could be a lot tougher in 2008 than it has been for quite a long time… [...]