A new Rasmussen poll seems to indicate that there may be a surprise brewing in the Senate race in the Garden State:
Democrat Frank Lautenberg, seeking a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, is in a virtual tie with Republican challenger Dick Zimmer in New Jersey, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.
Forty-five percent (45%) of likely voters in the predominantly Democratic state favor Lautenberg, while 44% are backing Zimmer, a former U.S. congressman who is running as a fiscal conservative.
(…)
Lautenberg, despite primary support from Gov. Jon S. Corzine and other top state Democratic leaders, has some fence-building to do in his own party. While 83% of Republican voters support Zimmer, only 70% of Democrats are backing Lautenberg. Twenty-four percent (24%) of Democrats prefer Zimmer and 5% some other candidate.
Lautenberg is viewed at least somewhat favorably by 48% of New Jersey voters and at least somewhat unfavorably by 47%. Zimmer has an edge here, with 46% of voters at least somewhat favorable to him while only 38% rate him at least somewhat unfavorable.
Before you get too excited about this one, though, there’s something to keep in mind:
Historically, however, New Jersey often shows Republicans competitive with Democrats until the fall when the latter pull away decisively. A Republican has not won a statewide election in the Garden State since 1997.
The one thing that could help Zimmer would be if the race between McCain and Obama in New Jersey is close. Unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be the case right now:
Barack Obama holds a solid lead over John McCain in New Jersey in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state since the Illinois senator clinched the Democratic Party’s nomination last week.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of likely voters in the Garden State favor Obama, as opposed to 39% for Mr. McCain, six percent (6%) for a third-party candidate and six percent (6%) undecided.
The results show that Hillary Clinton voters already are moving to Obama’s column since the previous Rasmussen Reports survey in late March. At that time the Democratic nomination was still being hotly contested, and McCain held a statistically insignificant lead over each of his two potential rivals.
Barring a major change, I think that New Jersey will stay solidily blue in November.
