There may be 138 days left until Election Day, but the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has already called the race:
Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia professor known for his Election Day observations, today released his most recent take on the U.S. Senate races this November which includes the popular prediction that Virginia’s open seat likely will go Democratic.
Sabato expects Democrats to pick up between three and seven seats to add to their razor-thin 51-49 margin in what is shaping up to be a tough political environment for Republicans across the nation. But that’s still less than they need to reach 60, the number needed to shut down filibusters.
In Virginia, Sabato predicts a “likely Democratic pickup” with former Democratic governor Mark R. Warner defeating former Republican governor James S. Gilmore III. He noted that the state has “undeniably” become more Democratic in recent years with wins for govenor in 2001 and 2005, U.S. Senate in 2006 and the state Senate in 2007.
“The man who started the movement to the Democrats, former Governor Mark Warner, is very likely headed to the Senate in 2008,” he writes in his Crystal Ball. “He may or may not be handicapped by the Democratic presidential nominee, but he has such wide appeal among independents that he should be able to make up any lost ground, and it is far from impossible that Barack Obama (unlike Hillary Clinton) could carry Virginia.”
As things stand right now, I think Sabato does have a point. There is no denying the poll numbers, all of which show Warner with a seemingly insurmountable lead in a year when Republicans in general are already in trouble.
Unless Gilmore can find a way to close the lead fast, I don’t think he has a chance in November.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Let’s see maybe Gilmore can come up with a gimic to get elected, aka, “car tax relief.” Gilmore was the worst Governor in recent Virginia history, and it took Mark Warner to straighten out his mess. Gilmore left the State in debt, and created a major fiscal mess. Virginians with any memory will remember this idiot.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:37 am
The independent voters in the poorer parts of Virginia have not forgotten Gilmore’s broken promise, nor have they forgiven it. He doesn’t stand a chance without them. So Sabato is on the mark.
August 26th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
If the Republicans do not get their heads out of their @$$e$ they are going to become the party of has beens. James Gilmore can do alot for Virginians as a U.S. Senator, moreso than Mark Warner who will just kiss up to the left liberal leaders like Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry. What the Senate needs are Senators who will not become puppets once they reach Washington. All Virginians needs to consider very thoroughly who to vote for this Novemeber. Voting for a Senator is not a popularity contest. It’s a matter of who can pass legislation and use bi-partisan efforts to go against their party and make laws that will improve the standard of living for all Virginians. A senator needs to be unpopular alot of times. It proves loyalty to self and to the average Virginian rather than loyalty to his rich Senator buddies.