They don’t necessarily mean a thing:
As hard as it may be to believe, Michael Dukakis (left) was leading the first George Bush by an average of 8.2 percent in June of 1988. Bush went on to win the general election by 7.8 points.
Mr Bush led the relatively unknown Bill Clinton by 4.9 percent In June of ‘92, but managed to lose in November by 5.6 percent.
June 1996 polls showed the incumbent President Clinton leading by a whopping 17 points, but even Bob Dole managed to close the gap to a more respectable 8.5 percent.
2000 was different only in that George W. Bush led by 4.7 percent in June, won the election, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.5 percent.
And finally, John Kerry led in the June 2004 polls by an average of 0.9 percent, but lost the popular vote, and the election, to the incumbent Bush by 2.4 points.
So, while Mr Obama’s leads are certainly signs for Democrats to be optimistic, history points to caution. A lot can happen between June and November.
Not to mention the fact that the popularity polls don’t necessarily tell us anything about the Electoral College, which is, of course, how the election is decided.
What’s interesting about polls at this point in the race isn’t the fact of who’s up or who’s down on a daily or weekly basis. That daily Gallup trend line was relevant during the races for the Republican and Democratic nomination because there was an actual election nearly every week, and the Gallup polls were a good indication of how those results were impacting the primary fight at the national level. At this point, though, with the conventions more than two months away, and the General Election more than four months away, who stands where doesn’t really matter on a daily, or even a weekly basis.
The thing to watch, though, is where the trend line is going. If the race stays where it is between now and Labor Day, then I think McCain is going to have a tough time for a very simple reason — neither he nor Obama is likely to get a significant post-Convention “bounce” due to the fact that the Democratic and Republican conventions occur back-to-back. Then, once the GOP Convention is over, it’s Labor Day Weekend and the race has started.
