One month ago, Barack Obama held a slight lead over John McCain in Electoral College votes based on state polling.
One month later, while Obama has gained some ground, the situation looks to be about the same:
The biggest change from this time last month is that Florida is now listed as a toss up state due to the fact that McCain’s lead in that state, if it exists, is now within the margin of error of most polls.
Here’s what the map looks like if all the toss-up states are given to the candidate presently in the lead, regardless of the margin:
That’s a net gain of 32 Electoral Votes for Obama due largely to the fact that he presently has a lead in statewide polling in Michigan, Indiana, and New Hampshire.
The fact that Obama is leading in traditionally Republican states like Indiana and New Hamsphire, and competitive in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia seems to argue strongly that he is far better positioned to win in November than McCain is at the moment. For McCain to be competitive, he’s got to regain the lead in Florida, hold onto states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia and win at least two out of three in Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.
Given the way things are going at this early stage, that seems unlikely.
July 10th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
[...] things stand right now, though, its fairly clear from the Electoral Map, the National Polls, and the Intrade numbers that Barack Obama has a distinct advantage right now [...]
July 18th, 2008 at 3:03 am
Michelle Obama should be ashamed.
“GLORK” Michelle Obama should be ashamed of her separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago’s Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. Beneath that Darth-Vader-Mace-Windu-Jedi-Me ssiah Helmet Hairdo of Michelle Obama lurks a Wildabeast. If Michelle Obama new what her husband — the Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster — Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama did in Harlem, she would wash her wide-open, Hus-suey loving MUSILM mouth out, with twenty-four (24) mule-team double-cross X-boX-BorraX. The Lexis-Nexis-Albatross-Abacus-Complex of Barack and Michelle’s relationship with MUSLIM “PATWANG-FWEEE” Rev. Wright, Louis Farrakhan, and black demagoguery of Obama’s Stump Lines Echo Malcolm X; is about as much of a Hoax as Oxfam volunteers believe in HIV– AIDS Witch Doctors in Africa they feed.
“God damn America” - Jeremiah Wright and Barack Obama.
“God bless America” - Pope Benedict XVI and Hillary Clinton –
Michelle Obama AKA Wildabeast — failed the Illinois Bar Exam. If Barack Obama had married Shaniqua instead of the leftist-separatist-racist-beast-’ist Michelle, his jackanapes’ excitedly-fixed-elitism, Nemet-Oure-Saxas Our Father Our King — black rage, and “GLORK” black demagoguery of Obama’s Stump Lines Echo Malcolm X; would be taken a lot more expeditiously. Its expected that Obam will manage his explosive MUSLIM JIHADI — FATIMA EXTREMISM obsession bitter. He is a MUSLIM “Glork” It’s time to introduce this false, fake “GLORK” Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo “GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA” Police Department Buffalo Creek. He’s MAD!!!
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:08 am
If Obama becomes President or McCain the system will start its total down fall, the system is in fact coming apart so do you want a one world guy like Obama or a one world guy like McCain? thank you halliburtonwatch I think this Nation may just see a race and civil war and isn’t that the real Global reason why McCain and Obama are in place to take us down this coming hell road? I hope I am wrong and may God help you all.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
[...] tight as well. Those numbers remained the same into July on Intrade, in the national polls, and in the Electoral College, and didn’t change all that much as we headed into the convention (see Intrade, national [...]
October 1st, 2008 at 1:28 pm
[...] it was hard to say that either candidate had a real advantage. This continued to be the case in July, although Obama was showing even back then that he had a shot at winning the battleground state of [...]