About a month ago, I took a look at the Intrade electronic prediction markets numbers for the 2008 General Election. Back then, it showed Barack Obama being given a roughly 61% chance of winning the election in November.
One month later, things haven’t changed all that much.
Here’s Obama’s chart for the period from June 6th through today:
The Intrade market currently places Obama’s chance of winning the Presidency at 64.9%, just a little higher than where he stood back in June.
McCain, meanwhile, has slipped somewhat over the past month:
The Intrade markets now give John McCain less than a 30 percent chance of winning the election in November.
Given how things have typically gone in past elections, I would expect to see these numbers hold relatively steady through the conventions at the end of August.
