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A brief break in the haitus to post something I’ve been meaning to post for a week; my projection of the Electoral College breakdown as of this month:
Right now, McCain doesn’t just need to win pretty much every undecided state, he needs to flip either Ohio or Pennyslvania into the GOP column.
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July 17th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I think you flipped HI and AK there. No offense, but all the polls I’ve seen have Obama winning his state of birth rather handily, while McCain is favored in AK.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Well if Ohio gets those magic mushroom voting machines….
July 17th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Zach,
You are, of course, correct in pointing out my mistake. I’ve corrected it to reflect the proper parties for both states.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Say McCain wins the gray and picks up Ohio. Voila, it looks like 2004 - right? Except I think McCain loses NH and NM. Then,he must win PA or MI - yes? It’d be interesting to see the 00,04 and 08 (projections) together.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:31 am
JAB,
McCain doesn’t need NH or NM if he wins OH and CO. He will need CO though.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:41 am
I get worked up everytime I look at a map like that. I am worried if VA will go blue also? I see Obama people at the metro in Arlington on a daily basis! I have been blogging against Obama http://road2serfdom.blogspot.com/. keep up the good work.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:41 am
James,
Here’s why I think Obama will win Ohio:
http://tinyurl.com/65gb48
He’s leading, albeit slimly, in all the polls in an election year in which Republicans in general stand to get royally screwed.
Add to that the fact that I have family in Ohio and while it may have been Bush Country in `04, it’s changed alot in 4 years.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:42 am
DJ,
The key is either Ohio or Pa. Given every gray state to McCain, and he still loses.
And the fact that Obama is polling ahead of him in states like Montana and North Dakota is not a good sign.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Silence,
Obama has been leading in all of the most recent Virginia polls:
http://tinyurl.com/6o9nkx
My prediction is that, helped in part by a strong showing by Mark Warner, Obama will win Virginia.
July 17th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
[...] with maps Blame Doug Mataconis for pointing me to the Predict November site. Armed only with instinct and the latest Rasmussen [...]
July 17th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
James,
RealClearPolitics has an Electoral Projection map that includes results going all the way back to 1968:
http://tinyurl.com/4kuk2x
July 18th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Doug,
I think that Florida will be closer than it was in 2004. It’s looking like Obama probably won’t have his Jewish problem the pundits said he was going to have. I base this on the fact that Obama’s been leading the latest polls out of there.
I think we can comfortably call Colorado for Obama. Indiana will be won by McCain as will New Hampshire. Also, watch for Connecticut to be put into play by McCain.
Also, Republicans will fail to defeat a single sitting Democratic senator as the Republican candidate in Louisiana, John Kennedy, has turned into a disappointment.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Kevin,
Right now, Florida seems fairly solid for McCain, although that may change:
http://tinyurl.com/62a4ee
New Hampshire, interestingly enough, seems to be tilting toward Obama:
http://tinyurl.com/6mdxct
But I agree with you about the Senate. No Republican pickups and at least one Democratic pickup in Virginia with the possibility of a few more along the way depending on how the races go.