Based on the latest poll results, which are pretty similar to the last poll results, the answer would seem to be no:
Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a solid lead over Republican Jim Gilmore in Virginia’s race for the United States Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Warner ahead 57% to 34%. When “leaners” are included, Warner leads 59% to 36%.
The two men are competing for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Warner (no relation to the Democratic candidate). Almost from the moment the incumbent Senator announced his retirement, the Democrats have been favored to win this race. Both men were also former governors of Virginia, Warner serving from 2002 to 2006 and Gilmore served from 1998 to 2002. Prior to his term as Governor, Gilmore served as Attorney General of Virginia.
Warner is supported by 95% of Democrats in Virginia and 17% of Republicans. Gilmore is backed by 74% of Republicans and just 2% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Warner leads 52% to 27%.
These results are fairly identical to what we saw last October, and in January, February, May, and June.
To put it bluntly, there’s been almost no movement in the polls except in Warner’s favor and the fact that we’re seeing this result at the same time that the Presidential race in Virginia is a statistical tie cannot be good news for Gilmore.
July 19th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
The fundraising in this race has to be interesting. Give to Mark Warner? Why? He’s going to trounce his competition, and doesn’t need my help. Give to Gilmore? I’m sorry, I’ll probably get more out of lighting my cigars with $100 bills.
July 24th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
[...] already seeing evidence of that in polls that show Republican Senate candidates in states such as Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota either losing outright or facing a tough fight [...]
August 14th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
[...] Does Jim Gilmore Have A Snowball’s Chance In Hell ? Virginia Senate: Warner 60% Gilmore 33% Bad News For Virginia Republicans Times Three Rasmussen: Warner Leads Gilmore By 20 Points Rasmussen Shows Warner 15 Points Up On Gilmore Washington Post Poll Shows Warner Far Ahead In `08 Senate Race [link] [...]