Below The Beltway

Depending on which poll you read, either John McCain or Barack Obama has taken a possibly momentum shifting lead in the Buckeye State.

According to Rasmussen it’s McCain:

ohn McCain has opened a modest lead over Barack Obama in the key swing state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month and the month before McCain held a insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

Seven percent (7%) of voters say they’d prefer a third party candidate over either McCain or Obama and another 7% remain undecided.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 52% to 42%.

According to Public Policy Polling, it’s Obama:

Barack Obama continues to hold a solid advantage over John McCain in
Ohio, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

His lead in the state is 48-40, similar to the 50-39 edge he showed in PPP’s June poll.

Obama trails McCain 46-42 among white voters, but his 91-6 advantage with African
Americans gives him the overall lead.

“Right now Barack Obama is in a pretty good position in Ohio,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “His standing with black voters is not surprising, but
he is also doing unusually well with white voters in the state. Whether he can sustain that
level of support or not will probably determine if he can take this state.”

The results show a significant gender gap, with Obama leading by 20 points among
women but trailing by seven with men. Obama leads in all age groups except senior
citizens.

So which one is right. Maybe neither.

Prior to this, Rasmussen had been showing Ohio as a dead heat between the candidates, which is consistent with what we’ve seen from other polls done there since the nomination fights ended in June. The fact that two polls, done over virtually the same time period, show such wildly inconsistent results both between themselves and when compared to recent polls by SurveyUSA and Quinnpac seems to be strong evidence in favor of the proposition that they should both be considered outliers, at least until additional surveys come out that consistent with their results or the two companies re-poll and show results more consistent with the rest of the pack.