Marc Ambinder reports today that discussion about a Vice-Presidential running mate for Barack Obama has apparently narrowed to four people:
The following three Democrats are being vetted by Eric Holder and Caroline Kennedy and there is independent evidence that Obama is taking a serious look at them:
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Evan Bayh.
Additionally, allies of Sen. Joe Biden say that he is under serious consideration, although he is not being subjected to the same level of vetting.
The huffing and puffing over Kaine is the result of Kaine’s allies getting excited…and confirming what has been reported here and elsewhere, which is that Kaine is being vetted and that Obama is seriously considering him. Based on discussions with high-level Obama aides, I do not get the impression that Obama has made up his mind yet. These aides do say that Obama is narrowing his choices.
Of course, if you picked up today’s Washington Post, you would see Exhibit A of the Kaine excitement:
Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has told close associates that he has had “very serious” conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to Kaine.(…)
Aides to Kaine declined to comment about the possibility that Obama might pick him, referring all questions to the senator’s campaign. “The governor has been pretty clear from the beginning, when Senator Obama asked him to be a national co-chair, that any conversation he has with the campaign, on any topic, are conversations that he is keeping private,” said Delacey Skinner, Kaine’s spokeswoman.
But several people who have spoken to Kaine said he has talked about the seriousness of the possibility. Each spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the campaign’s desire to keep the process secret. One said Kaine has stressed that there are other top candidates but described his discussions with the campaign as “very serious.”
While there’s obviously an argument that Obama should picking someone like Bayh or Biden based on the idea that they might help him carry a state like Indiana or Virginia, the real value of a Vice-Presidential nominee in that regard seems doubtful, as John Edward can attest from his own inability to carry his own state for John Kerry four years ago.
And, frankly, outside of a possible Electoral advantage I don’t see any reason why it would be in Obama’s interest to put Tim Kaine on the ticket. I seriously doubt he’s going to play well outside of Virginia, and considering that one of the primary issues that Obama needs to consider in making his choice is his own lack of national political experience, picking someone whose sole political experience has taken place entirely within the City of Richmond.
Larry Sabato makes a similar point in a column out today:
Other than the possibility of racial leakage at the polls–the chance that many white voters who would otherwise vote Democratic this year will be unable to cast a ballot for an African-American–there is no greater threat to Obama’s victory than his inexperience. With fewer than four years in Washington as a senator, most of which has been spent running for president, plus a stint in the Illinois State Senate, Obama’s public office resume is undeniably thin. His recent successful Magical Mystery Tour of eight European and Middle Eastern countries notwithstanding, Obama has little or no foreign policy, military, and national security experience.
Unless one counts foreign trade missions, Kaine has even less knowledge of these areas than Obama. Survey after survey has shown that Americans have a hard time, at least so far, seeing Obama in the role of commander-in-chief. A VP pick with solid background in the military or international arena would be reassuring. Kaine provides no comfort there, and it may cost Obama. Overall, Kaine has executive experience as a mayor and governor that perhaps balances Obama’s purely legislative resume. Yet this would be a team whose elective resume is rather skimpy, beginning only in the mid-1990s, with just one truly consequential office each–and not a full term in it for either.
And Sabato’s analysis of Kaine’s time as Governor so far is, I think, pretty spot-on:
Few nonpartisan observers in Virginia regard Kaine’s tenure in the Governor’s Office as particularly successful. Having known every governor since Albertis Harrison (1962-1966) and having studied the records of the dozen most recent governors, I would characterize Kaine’s term to this point as belonging to the bottom quartile. To be fair, he has a year and a half to go, and sometimes a Virginia governor can make a final push that raises his grade considerably.
So far, Kaine has had one shining moment after the Virginia Tech massacre in April 2007, when he handled the tragedy with aplomb–easily on a par with Gov. Frank Keating’s management of the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 or Gov. Haley Barbour’s skill in bringing Mississippi back from the brink of chaos after Hurricane Katrina. But otherwise, his executive tenure has recorded few significant successes and one giant, overriding failure in the transportation field where Kaine hoped to make his mark.
So, what is it that Kaine would actually bring to the Vice-Presidency ?
Aside from possibly helping Obama win Virginia’s 13 Electoral Votes (although I think Senate candidate Mark Warner will help Obama more than putting Kaine on the ticket ever could), I can’t think of a thing.
Over at Donklephant, Justin Gardner speculates that Obama’s best choice must just be someone we heard from 20 years ago:
In any event, my advice would be to go with either Biden or Sebelius…and currently I’d lean towards Biden because of the national security cred he’d bring to the campaign.
Based solely on the national security issue, I would tend to agree. It’s the one area where McCain has the ability to hammer Obama from now until Election Day and picking Biden or someone like him would be a politically smart move.
