Remember that post-European Vacation bounce that I mentioned last week ?
Well, it’s gone now.
According to the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain is back down to three percent:
PRINCETON, NJ — Registered voters show a slight preference for Barack Obama (46%) over John McCain (43%) if the presidential election were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.
The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.
The Rasmussen poll, meanwhile, actually shows McCain taking a lead for the first time since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.
This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3 (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.
The McCain lead in an interesting fact, but ultimately meaningless unless it’s followed by continued gains which would then seem to suggest that the GOP’s recent change in strategy and more aggressive campaigning against Obama is working.
What’s more interesting is the fact that, once again, this race is back where it’s been since the beginning of May. Obama leads, most of the time, but not by numbers that are statistically significant enough to tell us anything about what’s really going on in the mind of voters. The trip to Europe did give him a bounce, but it was as short lived as every other bounce has been and, so far at least, Obama has not gotten above 50% in any of the tracking polls.
Given the fact that this was supposed to be a prime year for Democrats, the fact that their Presidential candidate is, at least to date, effectively tied with his his Republican opponent could mean that everything we’ve thought about what will happen in November could prove to be entirely wrong.
