It’s beginning to look very much like the Old Dominion, traditionally a state that has been so overwhelmingly Republican, and before 1968, so overwhelmingly Democratic, that it’s hardly been a factor in any Presidential race in a very long time, could be assuming the role held by Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004:
It’s hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia’s Electoral College votes.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 45% to 44%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.
The difference between those two results can be found primarily among unaffiliated voters. Without leaners, McCain has a twelve point advantage among those not affiliated with either major party. When leaners are included, McCain’s advantage grows to seventeen points, 54% to 37%.
With or without leaners, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans while 87% of Democrats in Virginia say they’ll vote for Obama.
These results are essentially unchanged from a month ago. This is the third straight month to find the candidates just a single point apart and that may be one reason former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who is well ahead in his race for the Senate, has been tapped to give the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention later this month.
The fact that Virginia is so close says more, I think, about Obama’s strength in the state, especially in areas like Northern Virginia, than it does about McCain. In any other year, this should be an easy state for McCain to win. The fact that he’s in a statistical tie here with barely two weeks to go before the conventions start is an indication that Virginia could go Democratic for the first time in 40 years.
