Below The Beltway

Two stories out today are stoking yet more speculation about the identity of Barack Obama’s Vice-Presidential running mate.

First, CNN reports that both Evan Bayh and Joe Biden have been given prominent speaking roles at the convention:

(CNN) — The two senators widely believed to be at the top of Barack Obama’s shortlist for VP have been given prime-time speaking slots at the Democratic convention Wednesday night — the very same night the vice presidential candidate is slated to speak.

According to the Democratic National Convention Committee, both Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden will deliver speeches on national security during the marquee night — the same evening former President Bill Clinton is also scheduled to speak.

(…)

Biden and Bayh’s appearance especially is sure to heighten speculation one of the two senators will ultimately be named Obama’s running mate. The announcement also comes the same day Biden hit the campaign trail for the Illinois senator, accepting an endorsement on his behalf from the International Association of Firefighters in Las Vegas.

Of course, Biden and Bayh aren’t the only ones speaking that night:

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar will also speak Wednesday evening, according to the convention committee.

And, as James Joyner notes, I think we can rest assured that Harry Reid is not going to be the Vice-Presidential nominee.

Meanwhile, Marc Ambinder is looking at Obama’s schedule and reading the tea leaves:

CBS News’s Jeff Greenfield and I each have independent Democratic sources who say that an advance team for Barack Obama is in Richmond, VA preparing for a campaign event next Thursday.

To conjecture, of course, would be easy. Gov. Tim Kaine lives and works in Richmond… but
Virginia’s a swing state; it’s not unusual for Obama to campaign there. Or maybe it’s an event for Michelle Obama.

For some reason, I don’t think this is IT — THE vice presidential announcement. It could happen somewhere else… on another day..– Wednesday — in another state… and not involve anything related to Virginia. Maybe Richmond is a stop on the vice presidential tour — a tour that begins elsewhere the day before.

But: unless he’s planning a convention week surprise, Obama has to announce his vice presidential nominee next week.

However, it appears that Tim Kaine isn’t the only Virginian that the Obama camp is looking at:

[A] Democratic research firm spent part of last week quietly focus grouping the political skills and attributes of Kaine and Gov. Mark Warner last week, two people familiar with the results say.

(…)

They said that the focus group was held in a conference room in Norfolk, a city in Virginia’s eastern Tidewater region, a huge swing area of the state.

Warner came off well; Kaine did not, with respondents saying that he lacks substantive accomplishments and kisses up too much to Obama.

Does this mean that the Obama camp is looking at Warner as a running mate ?

That would seem unlikely mainly because Warner appears incredibly well-positioned to move the Senate seat currently held by John Warner into the Democratic column. Since Virginia law does not, as far as I am aware, allow the same person to run for two different offices at the same time, picking Warner as the Veep running mate would mean that someone else would have to take his place in the race against Jim Gilmore, without the benefit of the millions of dollars that Warner has already raised.

It’s more likely, as Ambinder says, that they are testing Warner and Kaine to see which would be a better spokesperson for the Obama campaign during a media campaign in Virginia. Given Warner’s high favorability ratings and massive lead in the polls over Jim Gilmore, he would seem to be the obvious choice for that job and that focus group would seem to confirm that.

That said, this can’t be good news for Tim Kaine’s prospects for getting on the ticket; if he isn’t coming across well in his home state, then he’s really of no value whatsoever to the Obama campaign.

My guess, for what it’s worth, is that it will be either Bayh or Biden and that Biden is the more likely choice.

Update: As D.J. McGuire notes in a comment, it is possible for a candidate to run for two offices in the same election.

Here’s the relevant section of the Virginia Code:

Only a person fulfilling all the requirements of a candidate shall have his name printed on the ballot for the election. No person shall have his name printed on the ballot for more than one office at any one election. However, a candidate for federal or statewide office, or a candidate for an office being filled in a special election, may have his name printed on the ballot for two offices at an election. 

So, Mark Warner could run for Vice-President and Virginia’s open Senate seat at the same.

That said, it should be noted that Warner said two months ago that he would not accept the nomination if it was offered:

HAMPTON, Va. — Former Gov. Mark R. Warner on Saturday removed himself from consideration as a vice presidential running mate for Democrat Barack Obama.

Warner clarified his intentions for the first time as he accepted the Virginia Democratic Convention’s nomination for a U.S. Senate race this fall.

“I have not sought and I will not accept any other opportunity,” Warner told cheering convention delegates.

He was one of three Virginia Democrats frequently mentioned as potential Obama ticketmates. Neither of the other two, Sen. Jim Webb or Gov. Tim Kaine, have ruled out a run with Obama.

“Today, in front of this convention, I wanted to make it clear what I am focused on,” Warner said. Until Saturday, he had downplayed his interest but stopped short of precluding a spot on the ticket if Obama asked.

Of course, intentions can change and if Obama really wanted to pick a running mate that would help him win Virginia, Warner would be a far smarter choice than Kaine for many reasons. However, I don’t think the Democrats, including Obama, are going to want to do anything that could put in danger a Senate seat pickup that, at this point, seems close to certain.