I was playing around with my Electoral College predictions and came up with this surprisingly easy to accept scenario:
It’s not that wild an idea. McCain wins Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Obama wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
And America is plunged into a scenario it hasn’t seen since the Election of 1824
Likely ? Probably not, but given the year we’ve seen anything is possible.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
[...] Doug Mataconis runs the numbers and comes up with an extremely plausible map… [...]
August 19th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
[...] course, if McCain did manage to win Virginia under my scenario, then we’d have a whole other problem to deal with. [...]
August 19th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
The real Larry Sabato had a piece about the chances of an electoral tie, which led me to run the numbers. It would almost certainly mean a victory for Obama. The president under that scenario, is chosen in the House of Representatives with the newly seated Congress and the vote is by delegation, not by individual congressman. By my count you have 26 Democratic House delegations, 17 GOP delegations, and 7 delegations that are up for grabs (AK,AZ, KS, LA, MS, NM, & OH ). The Democrats would have the margin to elect Obama.
August 19th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
[...] reference to my post yesterday, he’s a breakdown of the membership of the House of Representatives by state and [...]
August 22nd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
[...] for Kristol’s first point….you want razor-close ? I’ll give you razor-close. [...]