In June and July, Barack Obama held what looked like a solid lead over John McCain in the Electoral College,
Now, it looks like the race has tightened over the past five weeks.
Here’s the Electoral College map excluding states where the RealClearPolitics poll average is within the margin of error:
Obama lost ten Electoral Votes from the July tally due to the fact that McCain has gained ground in Minnesota. McCain, on the other hand is at the same 163 solid or leaning Electoral Votes that he was last month.
Things are a little more interesting, though, when you eliminate the toss-ups and give each state to the candidate in the lead regardless of the MOE:
This is a pretty significant change from July when Obama lead 304-234, and fairly consistent with June when Obama had a 272-266 lead after toss-ups were eliminated.
The biggest changes can be seen in Colorado and Ohio, where McCain has recovered from summer polls that showed him falling further and further behind Obama.
I’ve also changed my own prediction for the Electoral College as follows:
Basically, right now, I think that McCain will manage to pick up Ohio and Indiana, but Obama will win Virginia and go over the top.
Of course, if McCain did manage to win Virginia under my scenario, then we’d have a whole other problem to deal with.
August 19th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
You also give Nevada to Obama?
August 19th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Ron,
To date, Obama and McCain are in a dead heat there:
http://tinyurl.com/6e4bmt
And Clinton/Gore won there in 1992 and 1996 so it’s not out of the question at all.
August 19th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
August 20th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
[...] it’s not just in national polls that this is showing up. As I noted yesterday, the Electoral College projection has tightened significantly over the past six weeks. The RealClearPolitics map now shows McCain beating Obama for the first [...]
November 5th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
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