As we saw in June and July, the race between Obama and McCain, as reflected by the rather meaningless national polls, remains close:
True, there was some movement in the daily tracking polls after Obama’s trip to Europe, but that bounce evaporated quickly and the two candidates are basically in the same positions they were when this race started in earnest in July.
When you look at the Obama v. McCain RealClear Politics average since the beginning of the year, though, some interesting tidbits show up:
First, the only time that McCain has led the race was during the time that Obama was still in the middle of a primary battle with Hillary Clinton, and especially during March and April when stories like Obama’s ties to Jeremiah Wright, the whole Bitter-gate story, and then the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright dominated the news cycle. Not surprisingly, Obama was hurt by these stories not only in his race against Clinton, but also in hypothetical match-up’s against McCain.
Second, as the blue line shows, Obama’s average has peaked at 49% several times and never made it over the 50% mark. The same is true of McCain, who has never gotten his average about 47%. The fact that neither candidate can reach and surpass the 50% mark seems signficiant.
Third, there remains a sizeable portion of the Electorate — twelve percent according to the latest RCP average — that hasn’t made their mind of up yet. Given the fact that both candidates seem to have stayed within the 45% range for months now, it’s unlikely that they would lose significant numbers of the early deciders. As is usually the case, this election will be about the undecided voters — most of whom haven’t even started paying attention to the race yet — the difference is that, this year, that group is much larger than it’s been in the past.
Finally, to answer a question I asked last month, it’s beginning to look now like this election will be a nail-biter rather than a blow-out.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
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October 9th, 2008 at 8:30 am
[...] him, though, McCain was holding his own throughout the summer. Before the conventions started, the race was essentially even. After the conventions, it was starting to look like McCain might actually be pulling [...]
October 24th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
[...] surge after his trip to Europe, they began characterizing him as a celebrity in an ad campaign that actually did some damage. That didn’t last long, though, because once the Palin picked was announced we were graced [...]
October 24th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
[...] surge after his trip to Europe, they began characterizing him as a celebrity in an ad campaign that actually did some damage. That didn’t last long, though, because once the Palin picked was announced we were graced [...]