Below The Beltway

It now looks like Obama’s announcement will come tomorrow:

WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama has all but settled on his choice for a running mate and set an elaborate rollout plan for his decision, beginning with an early morning alert to supporters, perhaps as soon as Wednesday morning, aides said.

Mr. Obama’s deliberations remain remarkably closely held. Aides said perhaps a half-dozen advisers were involved in the final discussions in an effort to enforce a command that Mr. Obama issued to staff members: that his decision not leak out until supporters are notified.

Mr. Obama had not notified his choice — or any of those not selected — of his decision as of late Monday, advisers said. Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

Some Democrats said they still hoped that he would choose Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, or Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, who has been under steady consideration by Mr. Obama’s campaign.

By all indications, Mr. Obama is likely to choose someone relatively safe and avoid taking a chance with a game-changing selection

Which is why I’m still putting my money on Biden. Republicans will bring up the Neil Kinnock stuff from back in 1988 but, quite honestly, I don’t think that’s going to matter to voters.

Meanwhile on the  Republican side, Patrick Ruffini argues that McCain’s apparent choice of August 29th as his selection date is possibily the best move he’s made so far:

The 2004 election was won on two dates. The first was sometime in 2002 when the White House determined the ‘04 national convention would be held right before Labor Day, giving Bush the last word before a crucial psychological milestone of the campaign. And the second was July 6, 2004, when John Kerry blew it by announcing his VP pick three weeks early.

Looking back at the ‘04 RCP averages, Kerry’s lead peaked not at his Convention but when he selected Edwards. His peak vote share was the same as at the Democratic convention, but Bush’s had hardened by about 2 points during the month of July.

By moving up his post-VP selection honeymoon, Kerry made a crucial strategic error, one not to be repeated by either candidate this cycle. Whatever bounce Kerry got from the VP selection had dissipated by the national convention, leaving the convention alone to carry him. But Kerry endured a series of gaffes during his convention (bunny suit) and was outshined by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. This left him stalling in August, and left Bush to swoop in with a successful pre-Labor Day convention that generated a lead outside the margin not to be tamed until the first debate.

This is why McCain’s decision to jam up Obama’s news cycle with a VP pick on August 29th and compress his newsmaking opportunities into a few days could be a crucial milestone.

Except for this fact — McCain’s announcement would come on the Friday before the Labor Day weekend, when a large number of Americans are unlikely to be paying much attention to the news and would run in the Saturday papers, which typically have the lowest circulation of the week.