I’ve written extensively about just how bad things look for Republicans in the race for Virginia’s open Senate seat, but that’s just the beginning of the problem.
Case in point, New Hampshire:
Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen regained some lost ground and moved further ahead of incumbent Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s United States Senate race. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the states finds Shaheen up 51% to 40% which is enough to qualify Sununu as the most endangered incumbent of Election 2008.
(…)
For most of Election 2008, Shaheen has enjoyed a lead in the seven or eight percentage point range. Sununu pulled to within five points in July, while Shaheen enjoyed her biggest lead in June.
(…)
Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered vulnerable. Sununu has not even managed to attract more than 45% support in any of the eight Rasmussen Reports polls conducted this season. However, New Hampshire is far from the only Republican seat at risk this season. Democrats have their eyes on potential opportunities in Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota and Virginia. The only good news for the GOP is that there are fewer opportunities for Democrats today than there were a month ago.
For a time, it seemed like the Republicans had a shot of setting off what look to be significant Senate losses with a pick-up in Louisiana, but that no longer appears to be the case:
Senator Mary Landrieu, once viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this election year, has opened a significant lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in her bid for re-election.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the Louisiana Democrat attracts 53% of the vote while the Republican hopeful earns just 37% support. A month ago, Landrieu was leading Kennedy by only five percentage points, 49% to 44%.
Since that time, Landrieu has solidified her support among Democrats while Kennedy has lost ground with Republicans. The incumbent senator attracts now attracts 84% of Democrats, up 10 percentage points from a month ago. Kennedy wins just 72% of the Republican vote, down 10 points from July.
For the most part, Democratic candidates for Senate seem to be outperforming their parties nominee; especially in states like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, and Virginia, where McCain is either leading in the polls or close behind Obama at the same time that the Republican Senate candidate is trailing badly.
At this point, I think we can expect a net gain of at least 3-4 Senate seats for the Democrats in the fall.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:07 am
Yah, stick a fork in Sununu. There was a big anti-republican backlash here (NH) in ‘06, I expect it to continue in ‘08. Of course, I don’t see the sense in throwing out all the local (i.e. town and state-level) republicans because you’re angry with Doubya, but that’s what happened.