As we head into the party conventions, it looks like two important swing states are swinging in John McCain’s direction.
First, Ohio:
Ohio, the ultimate swing state in Election 2004, continues to lean in John McCain’s direction, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
McCain attracts 45% of the vote in Ohio while Obama earns 41%. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain led 46% to 40%.
(…)
The most discouraging number in the poll for Obama may be the fact that 51% of Ohio voters have an unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee. That figure includes 33% with a Very Unfavorable opinion, up six percent from a month ago.
Overall, 47% of Buckeye State voters offer a positive opinion of Obama. That’s fifteen points below the 62% with a favorable opinion of McCain.
And then, Florida:
John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%.
(…)
While Obama remains close in the polls, he is viewed unfavorably by 48% of Florida voters, including 57% of white voters. Just 49% of all voters give the Democrat a favorable assessment. McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 36%.
Last month, Obama held a statistically insignificant one-point lead on McCain following a month where Obama spent a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing. That was the first time Obama had held an advantage of any kind over McCain in the Sunshine State. For the previous six months the Republican had been ahead anywhere from seven to 16 percentage points.
McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.
While other states like Virginia will figure into the Electoral math, it’s going to be next to impossible for McCain to win in November unless he wins both Ohio and Florida. So far, things seem to be going his way.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Forest versus tress. Start with the 2004 results, then ask which Bush states Obama might take, and which Kerry states McCain might take.
When framed that way,the picture becomes much clearer.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:31 am
No it doesn’t.
Obama has probably flipped New Mexico and Iowa, but that’s not enough to change the outcome (McCain would still have 274).
Obama needs one of the following: Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, or Florida. Now, it’s certainly better to need just one than all four (McCain’s situation), but McCain is already on the right side of the statistical dead heat in three (and if we include leaners, all four).
Besides, McCain is within the margin of error in Wisconsin.
The state of the race remains clear as mud.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:08 am
DJ,
Kip has a point. Unlike Kerry, Obama is competative in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, and a few other states that Bush won handily in 2004. The only reason I agree with RCP putting Virginia in McCain’s column right now is because his slim, statistically insignificant, lead in the RCP poll average:
http://tinyurl.com/6o9nkx
The same is true in Ohio:
http://tinyurl.com/65gb48
Yes, there’s been a trend in McCain’s direction for the past 6 weeks or so, but that can change on a dime once the campaign really gets going.
As things stand right now, McCain is still in a bad position simply because he has to worry about the fact that he’s barely ahead, if at all, in states that George Bush won easily four years ago.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Kip,
I agree and, right now, I think it’s fairly obvious that Obama has a better chance of winning in a state that Bush won in 2004 (prospects include Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado) than McCain does of winning any of the states that Kerry won that year.
Given that, all it would take is for Obama to win either Ohio itself or Virginia and either New Mexico, Colorado, or Nevada) and the election is his.