Comments on: McCain’s Gains http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/ I believe in the free speech that liberals used to believe in, the economic freedom that conservatives used to believe in, and the personal freedom that America used to believe in. Sat, 23 Jul 2011 17:00:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Doug Mataconis http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-234749 Doug Mataconis Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:37:30 +0000 http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/#comment-234749 Kip, I agree and, right now, I think it's fairly obvious that Obama has a better chance of winning in a state that Bush won in 2004 (prospects include Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado) than McCain does of winning any of the states that Kerry won that year. Given that, all it would take is for Obama to win either Ohio itself or Virginia and either New Mexico, Colorado, or Nevada) and the election is his. Kip,

I agree and, right now, I think it’s fairly obvious that Obama has a better chance of winning in a state that Bush won in 2004 (prospects include Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado) than McCain does of winning any of the states that Kerry won that year.

Given that, all it would take is for Obama to win either Ohio itself or Virginia and either New Mexico, Colorado, or Nevada) and the election is his.

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-234708 Doug Mataconis Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:08:16 +0000 http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/#comment-234708 DJ, Kip has a point. Unlike Kerry, Obama is competative in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, and a few other states that Bush won handily in 2004. The only reason I agree with RCP putting Virginia in McCain's column right now is because his slim, statistically insignificant, lead in the RCP poll average: http://tinyurl.com/6o9nkx The same is true in Ohio: http://tinyurl.com/65gb48 Yes, there's been a trend in McCain's direction for the past 6 weeks or so, but that can change on a dime once the campaign really gets going. As things stand right now, McCain is still in a bad position simply because he has to worry about the fact that he's barely ahead, if at all, in states that George Bush won easily four years ago. DJ,

Kip has a point. Unlike Kerry, Obama is competative in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, and a few other states that Bush won handily in 2004. The only reason I agree with RCP putting Virginia in McCain’s column right now is because his slim, statistically insignificant, lead in the RCP poll average:

http://tinyurl.com/6o9nkx

The same is true in Ohio:

http://tinyurl.com/65gb48

Yes, there’s been a trend in McCain’s direction for the past 6 weeks or so, but that can change on a dime once the campaign really gets going.

As things stand right now, McCain is still in a bad position simply because he has to worry about the fact that he’s barely ahead, if at all, in states that George Bush won easily four years ago.

]]> By: D.J. McGuire http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-234700 D.J. McGuire Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:31:35 +0000 http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/#comment-234700 No it doesn't. Obama has probably flipped New Mexico and Iowa, but that's not enough to change the outcome (McCain would still have 274). Obama needs one of the following: Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, or Florida. Now, it's certainly better to need just one than all four (McCain's situation), but McCain is already on the right side of the statistical dead heat in three (and if we include leaners, all four). Besides, McCain is within the margin of error in Wisconsin. The state of the race remains clear as mud. No it doesn’t.
Obama has probably flipped New Mexico and Iowa, but that’s not enough to change the outcome (McCain would still have 274).
Obama needs one of the following: Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, or Florida. Now, it’s certainly better to need just one than all four (McCain’s situation), but McCain is already on the right side of the statistical dead heat in three (and if we include leaners, all four).
Besides, McCain is within the margin of error in Wisconsin.
The state of the race remains clear as mud.

]]> By: KipEsquire http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/comment-page-1/#comment-234698 KipEsquire Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:16:31 +0000 http://belowthebeltway.com/2008/08/20/mccains-gains/#comment-234698 Forest versus tress. Start with the 2004 results, then ask which Bush states Obama might take, and which Kerry states McCain might take. When framed that way,the picture becomes much clearer. Forest versus tress. Start with the 2004 results, then ask which Bush states Obama might take, and which Kerry states McCain might take.

When framed that way,the picture becomes much clearer.

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