Jay Cost comes up with five excellent points about what is shaping up to be the most unique Presidential race in quite some time:
(1) The macro conditions favor the Democrats in a way we have not seen in at least 28 years.
(2) In response, the Democrats nominated a candidate with relatively little governing experience and a background quite different from white voters, who swing presidential elections.
(3) The Republicans nominated a candidate who built a national reputation by disagreeing with George W. Bush in particular and the Republican Party in general, in the hopes that this man is immune from the public disaffection with the GOP.
(4) The public now gets to choose a man with little experience and a different background, or a semi-Republican. They’re not sure which one they want. And because there are two wars on, a credit crisis, a weak economy, and high gas prices - they’re taking their sweet time in deciding.
(5) Anybody who tells you what is going to happen is probably trying to sell you something.
To which Bill Kristol adds:
1) In the five open seat elections since 1948, three (1960, 1976, and 2000) have been razor-close. There’s no reason to assume this one won’t be.
2) With so many undecideds, the debates might well make a difference–as they arguably did in 1960, 1976, and 2000 (and 1988, for that matter; there was no debate in 1952). So after the conventions, the big day to focus on is Friday, Sept. 26–the first debate, in Oxford, Miss.
And, of course, neither McCain nor Obama came across as particularly great debaters during the primary season so it’s unclear how that will play out.
As for Kristol’s first point….you want razor-close ? I’ll give you razor-close.
