As with the Rasmussen poll I wrote about earlier, today’s Gallup tracking poll shows no evidence of a significant bump in the polls coming off of yesterday’s Veep announcement:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds a precise tie between John McCain and Barack Obama, with 45% of nationwide registered voters currently supporting each candidate for president.
The two have been closely matched in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for the last 11 days, with neither candidate enjoying a statistically significant lead (though Obama has typically held a slim advantage). Thus, the candidates enter this intense, back-to-back convention period even, after Obama enjoyed a slight advantage throughout the summer. The National Democratic Convention begins Monday in Denver with the Republicans’ convention begins Sept. 1 in Minneapolis. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
On Saturday, after much speculation, Obama finally named his vice presidential running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden. Initial public reaction to Biden’s selection appears rather unenthusiastic, according to a special Biden reaction poll conducted by USA Today and Gallup on Saturday.
Typically, presidential candidates have gotten a bump in the polls after naming their vice presidential running mate. Obama apparently received no immediate benefit in the polls from naming Biden as Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted during the day on Saturday still showed Obama and McCain closely matched in voter preferences for president.
Quite honestly, this isn’t entirely surprising, outside of the state of Delaware, which isn’t likely to vote Republican this November to begin with, I doubt that the name Joe Biden raises much excitement in anyone’s minds. The idea that he would contribute to a significant up-tick in Obama’’s poll numbers seems laughable at best.
What will be interesting to watch over the coming days is whether there is any bounce — be it a Veep bounce or a convention bounce — to speak of for either candidate.
Given the fact that this race has been so incredibly stable over the summer, it seems as though only something major is going to change the minds of voters on either side and that, more than ever, the race for the White House in 2008 is going to be a battle for the hearts and minds for that 10-13% of the voting public that apparently has yet to make it’s mind up.
