Below The Beltway

If the upcoming Democratic and Republican Conventions are going to have any impact on the polls, it will show up first in the daily tracking polls, so let’s see where they stand today.

First, Rasmussen shows Obama with a slight, but barely statistically significant, lead over McCain:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%

And the Gallup poll shows the two candidates tied for the second day in a row:

PRINCETON, NJ — The last Gallup Poll Daily tracking polling conducted before the beginning of the Democratic National Convention shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 45%.

The latest update includes two days of interviewing following Obama’s selection of Sen. Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate, and neither day showed an improved performance for Obama. Thus, Obama does not appear to have gotten the same type of immediate “vice presidential bounce” as have presidential candidates in recent years. That could reflect a somewhat muted national response to the Biden selection, or competition for the nation’s attention with the Olympics. (The candidates who got vice presidential bounces in 1996, 2000, and 2004 announced their choices before or after the Olympics took place in those years.)

In fact, today’s results, using Aug. 22-24 interviews, show both candidates getting precisely the same number of votes when more than 2,600 national registered voters were asked who they would vote for “if the presidential election were held today.”

As the days go on there are several things to look for:

• Will Barack Obama get any additional bounce from his Vice-Presidential selection ? So far, the answer seems to be no
• Will Obama get a significant convention bounce, or will the McCain campaigns continued offensive cut into any lead that the next several days of coverage might bring ?
• Will McCain get a bounce after he selects his Vice-Presidential nominee on Friday ? After the Republican convention ?
• Will either candidate move above 50% in any of the tracking polls, and, if they do, will they stay there for more than a few days ? So far, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain has polled higher than 49% in either tracking poll.

It’s entirely possible that, when the dust settles on or about September 8th, the race will be in pretty much the same state it is right now. In which case, it’s going to be a long, tough two months for both candidates.