Below The Beltway

Three days after Barack Obama announced Joe Biden as his running mate, it’s become clear that not only hasn’t Obama seen his poll numbers increase due to Biden’s addition to the ticket, they’ve actually gotten worse.

First, Rasmussen now shows McCain and Obama tied at 44%:

The Democratic National Convention has begun and the poll numbers are bouncing, but not in the direction that most people anticipated.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%. Yesterday, with leaners, Obama had a three-point advantage over McCain

And, today’s numbers are just part of an overall trend:

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton.

Because, as Rasmussen notes in another poll, nearly half of Democratic women think Obama should have chosen Hillary Clinton:

Nearly half of Democratic women (47%) say Barack Obama should have chosen Hillary Clinton for his running mate instead of Senator Joseph Biden as the former First Lady prepares to speak tonight at the Democratic National Convention. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disagree.

The results from the Gallup tracking polls are basically the same:

PRINCETON, NJ — It’s official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama’s Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week’s standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

The race for president has been virtually tied since mid-August. In this period, Obama’s support from national registered voters has consistently ranged from 44% to 46%. The 46% currently supporting McCain is technically his best showing since late May/early June, but is not a statistically significant improvement over his recent range from 43% to 45%

As Gallup notes, there has historically been at least some kind of up-tic in the polls after a running mate announcement:

[R]ecent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing Dick Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.

All of these bounces occurred before the respective party’s convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama’s support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.

So what accounts for the apparently ahistorical developments this year ?

There are probably a few elements at play here.

First, except for one or two minor up-tics that have quickly faded, this election has essentially been tied since it was clear who the major party nominees would be. This has also been one of the most extensively covered elections in memory, meaning that there is likely to be a significant segment of voters on each side of the aisle who, barring a major development, are unlikely to change their mind. Since Obama went with the safe, expected, choice in selecting his running mate, it’s not surprising that it hasn’t had much of an impact on the polls.

Second, Joe Biden obviously isn’t the kind of candidate that excites people.

And, finally, I think Justin Gardner is on to something when he attributes the latest poll movements to Hillary Clinton supporters who are upset that Obama did not select her as his running mate:

The Hillary voters have started to jump to McCain because of the Biden announcement. And all it takes is just a few % swing here and there to swing this election. So if this is tight, not picking Hillary could really cost Obama.

We shall see.

At the very least, though, we have the answer to one of the questions I posed yesterday:

Will Barack Obama get any additional bounce from his Vice-Presidential selection ?

Clearly, the answer is no.