With the Democratic convention half over, and little more than twenty-four hours before Barack Obama accepts the nomination of his party behind a faux Greek temple backdrop, there’s scant evidence that the race has changed all that much from where it was before the Democratic National Convention started.
First, Rasmussen’s Daily Tracking Poll shows McCain gaining on Obama yet again:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote for the second straight day. When “leaners” are included, though, McCain picked up another point since yesterday and now has a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 47% to 46%
This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past month
These numbers show a slight up-tic in McCain’s favor since yesterday but, for the most part, the race remains the same as it has been for months.
On the Gallup side, Barack Obama has taken a slight, albeit statistically insignificant lead:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday shows a race that is still close, with Barack Obama at 45% and John McCain at 44% among registered voters.
The latest three-day average (Aug. 24-26) shows Obama back with a very slight advantage after McCain edged ahead in Tuesday’s update. Despite these minor changes, the race, from a big picture perspective, has not changed and remains statistically tied — as it has for about two weeks now. A better night for Obama in Gallup’s Tuesday tracking interviews, however, suggests that a convention bounce could develop. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Certainly, the presidential election is now in the beginning phase of an extraordinarily busy stretch with the Democratic vice presidential nomination last weekend, the Democratic National Convention dominating news coverage this week, and then the pending announcement of John McCain’s vice presidential choice, plus the GOP convention next week. Changes in voter sentiment would not be at all unusual given the high-intensity flow of information into voters’ brains.
So far, however, there has been little major change in the structure of the race.
Gallup does note, however, that the more recent poll results do show what could be the beginnings of a convention bounce, although the unique scheduling of this year’s conventions suggest it might not last:
[I]nterviewing by Gallup on Tuesday night showed a stronger Obama performance, which could augur the beginnings of a bounce for Obama, as is evident more often than not immediately after a candidate’s convention. Gallup’s official “post-convention bounce” reading on Obama’s support will be based on interviewing conducted Friday through Sunday. However, with the McCain campaign hinting that it will attempt to dampen an Obama bounce with a quick announcement of the Republican vice presidential nominee on Friday, any effect from the Democratic convention may be short-lived.
So far, then, there is no Biden bounce, and any convention bounce that Obama receives at this point is likely to be muted by the impact of John McCain’s announcement of his running mate on Friday and the Republican National Convention.
But the lack of a significant poll bounce is not the only thing that Obama needs to worry about, Gallup also notes that he is losing support from a significant portion of his own party:
PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama has been struggling to maintain his Democratic base thus far in August, and according to weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, the problem seems to be with conservative Democrats.
Within the Democratic Party, Obama’s losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63% of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.
As a result of this, support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama’s support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.
The 78% of Democrats backing Obama from Aug. 18-24 ties for the lowest seen since early June. The 7% of Republicans for Obama is the lowest to date (since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the Obama-McCain race in March).
And, perhaps most surprisingly of all, Barack Obama is having more trouble attracting Democrats than John McCain is in attracting Republicans:
John McCain is pulling in more support from Republicans (87%) than Barack Obama is getting from Democrats (78%).
It seems fairly obvious that Obama is having problems with the base of his party and, until he remedies that, he’s not going to be able to put any distance between himself and John McCain.
