A new CNN poll out today shows no convention bounce for the Obama/Biden ticket:
ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — On the eve of the Republican convention, a new national poll suggests the race for the White House remains even.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, with the statistical margin of error.
The survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, after both the conclusion of the Democratic convention and Sen. John McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
A previous CNN poll, taken just one week earlier, suggested the race between McCain, R-Arizona, and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, was tied at 47 percent each.
“The convention and particularly Obama’s speech seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces assuming that either one created a bounce at all,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Or perhaps because people weren’t paying as much attention to either event as the media, and political junkies such as myself, would believe.
While the latest tracking polls still show a slight lead for Obama coming out of the convention, this isn’t entirely surprising. As I noted before the Democratic convention even began, there was, and remains, a distinct possibility that this race will be in exactly the same position it was after the convention as it was before they started:
First, the only time that McCain has led the race was during the time that Obama was still in the middle of a primary battle with Hillary Clinton, and especially during March and April when stories like Obama’s ties to Jeremiah Wright, the whole Bitter-gate story, and then the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright dominated the news cycle. Not surprisingly, Obama was hurt by these stories not only in his race against Clinton, but also in hypothetical match-up’s against McCain.
Second, as the blue line shows, Obama’s average has peaked at 49% several times and never made it over the 50% mark. The same is true of McCain, who has never gotten his average about 47%. The fact that neither candidate can reach and surpass the 50% mark seems signficiant.
Third, there remains a sizeable portion of the Electorate — twelve percent according to the latest RCP average — that hasn’t made their mind of up yet. Given the fact that both candidates seem to have stayed within the 45% range for months now, it’s unlikely that they would lose significant numbers of the early deciders. As is usually the case, this election will be about the undecided voters — most of whom haven’t even started paying attention to the race yet — the difference is that, this year, that group is much larger than it’s been in the past.
Based on the polls, that undecided segment is somewhere between 8-12% of the electorate, and they wll be the one’s who decide this election.
September 1st, 2008 at 9:04 am
So do you think people are going to wait until the debates to decide, or will there be a lot of last-minute decisionmaking?
September 1st, 2008 at 9:14 am
Ron,
The debates are likely to cause some people to decide but, year after year, we’ve learned that there is a sizeable portion of the electorate that doesn’t make up their mind until the two weeks before Election Day.
September 1st, 2008 at 10:17 am
The Republicans are all lair Watch for yourself
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-Es5aIJl1g&feature=related
&
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnBjwZ93n6Q
September 1st, 2008 at 11:36 am
Why do you quote the gallup polls only sometimes?
Gallup Tracking 08/28 - 08/30 2730 RV 48 42 Obama + 6
Obama 6 percent over McCain &
Rasmussen Tracking 08/29 - 08/31 3000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Obama 3 percent over McCain. Please don’t lie…
September 1st, 2008 at 12:20 pm
This verifies that people just can’t make themselves vote for a Black man for president -particularly men and older women - traditional voters. Young people aren’t as prejudiced - they don’t see color.
September 1st, 2008 at 2:27 pm
The poll results are not surprising. The DNC was the best that I have ever seen, Barack’s speech the best I have ever seen. I am in agreement with the idea that most have decided. I am sure that most staunch conservatives were not watching Obama, most liberals were watching Obama, so nobody’s mind has really changed. I agree with Patricia’s statement, the young people could clearly determine, at least in the popular vote, the out come of this election. Of course we all know that you can still lose but win the popular vote.
September 1st, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Gloria raises a good point. Gallup shows a huge change for Obama from 6 to 8 points. Additionally if you look at usaelectionpolls.com site over the last couple of days, you will see there has been a huge shift from under 300 electoral college votes to over 320 electoral college votes for Obama. Remember the national popular vote means nothing, it is the electoral college that matters. Few poll sites have McCain leading in the electoral college even the very careful Cook Political Report shows Obama with a sizeable plurality. Good reporting requires that you do more than cite just one poll. Clearly many polls reach many different conclusions, but to merely cite your own reflects poorly on your reporting methods. Get with the program.
September 1st, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Funny how this poll shows a dead heat and the Gallop poll has been showing Obama with a 6 point lead for at least the last 5 days!!
September 1st, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Come on media stop lying Obama has to have a bigger jump after this vp pick (horrible)17 yo daughter pregnant husband Dui what else clearly not qaulified come on people forget about race who is the better person and vp to lead us after this pick by Mccain i know who i will be voting for hands down a clear choice she is white trash I’am sorry but she is