Below The Beltway

In addition to the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, there are three other national polls out today on the Presidential race, and the conclusion from all four is the the same – Barack Obama continues to build on what may be the first real lead that either candidate has had in this race.

First, the Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama/Biden crossing  crucial milestone:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008

Despite all the national attention that has been focused on Sarah Palin, public perceptions of the Alaska Governor have changed little in the last few days. She is still viewed favorably by just over half of all voters. A separate survey found that Obama is number one and Palin number two on the list of candidates people would like to meet.

Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support McCain.

In the Gallup Poll, Obama/BIden also crossed the 50% margin for the first time since the election campaign began in earnest:

PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.

Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Still, Obama’s eight percentage point lead over McCain in the new poll falls one point shy of the lead he attained in late July after returning from a well-publicized trip to Europe and parts of the Middle East. At that time, Obama led by nine points, 49% to 40%.

McCain’s 42% support is well below his 48% top support level, recorded in late April/early May. It is just slightly better than the 40% he received at several points in July, and the 41% favoring him just last week while the Democratic National Convention was underway

Gallup also notes that the latest poll indicates that the selection of Sarah Palin may not attract former Hillary Clinton supporters as McCain cleary hopes:

PRINCETON, NJ — The Democratic convention appears to have helped solidify support for Barack Obama among former Hillary Clinton supporters, with the percent saying they will vote for Obama in November moving from 70% pre-convention to 81% after the convention, and the percent certain to vote for Obama jumping from 47% to 65%.

(…)

The Democratic convention appears to have increased certainty of support for Obama among Democratic voters, including in particular among the critical group of Democrats who earlier this year supported Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries (see graph above).

Much attention was given to the fact that only 47% of former Clinton supporters said they were certain to vote for Obama in the pre-convention USA Today/Gallup poll, and that 16% of these voters said they were going to vote for McCain, with another 14% undecided.

The new polling shows that many of these disaffected Clinton voters have now returned to the loyal Democratic fold. The percentage of former Clinton voters who say they are certain to vote for Obama has now jumped to 65%. Although 12% of former Clinton voters persist in saying that they are going to vote for McCain, that’s down from 16%, and the percentage who are undecided has dropped in half.

Overall, support for Obama among this group has moved from 70% pre-convention to 81% post-convention.

Meanwhile, three non-tracking polls show Obama opening up a lead.

First, a new CBS News poll shows Obama/Biden with an eight point lead over the Republican ticket:

(CBS) Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s lead over Republican John McCain has grown after the Democratic convention, which 71 percent of Americans say they watched. Obama and his running mate Joe Biden now lead McCain and Sarah Palin 48 percent to 40 percent, according to the latest CBS News poll.

This is the first CBS News poll to include the vice presidential candidates in the horserace question

The eight-point lead for the Democratic ticket is up from Obama’s three-point lead before the convention. But there are still a significant number of voters who have yet to firmly make up their minds.

Before the Democratic convention, McCain enjoyed a 12-point advantage with independent voters, but now Obama leads among this group 43 percent to 37 percent. Obama’s lead among women has also grown to 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent), and the Democrat maintained the lead he had before the convention among voters who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

And the USA Today/Gallup poll, which is different from Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll, shows that Obama has also crossed the 50% milestone:

ST. PAUL — The Democratic National Convention significantly boosted Americans’ views of Barack Obama as a strong leader who “shares your values” and can manage the economy and Iraq, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Saturday and Sunday finds.

Republican John McCain’s advantage in handling terrorism was dramatically reduced, and his “unfavorable” rating ticked up to its highest level this year.

“This is a convention bounce,” said Robert Eisinger, a political scientist at Lewis & Clark College and author of The Evolution of Presidential Polling. The results reflected the impact of themes the Democrats hammered at their convention in Denver last week.

Eisinger cautioned, “The Republicans haven’t yet had their convention, and John McCain will be exposed to a large segment of the population as well” with their convention this week. The GOP has had to deal with competing events, however, including Hurricane Gustav and Monday’s news that vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s teenage daughter is pregnant.

In the head-to-head race, Obama leads 50%-43% among registered voters. In the USA TODAY Poll taken Aug. 21-23, the Illinois senator held a 4-percentage-point lead.

And, finally, there’s a new Hotline poll that shows Obama with a 9 point lead on McCain:

A new Diageo/Hotline poll of nat’l RVs, conducted 8/29-31, shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 48-39%. Obama led the previous poll, conducted 8/18-24, 44-40%

Which makes these two charts from RealClearPolitics, which both seem to show real movement in the polls for the first time, very interesting:

So, for the moment at least, it looks like Obama has received a significant boost from the Democratic National Convention.