As we head toward what might be the biggest night of the Republican National Convention, the two Presidential tickets remain in basically the same place they were yesterday.
The Rasmussen poll shows Obama/Biden maintaining a 5-point lead:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 50%, McCain 45%. (see recent daily results).
With the two conventions back-to-back, the two Vice-Presidential picks so close together, and Hurricane Gustav in the middle, it’s difficult to put the convention bounces in context. Both Obama and McCain lost a little ground in the polls after announcing their Vice President running mate. Obama lost three points after the Joe Biden selection was announced and McCain lost two points after Palin was announced.
Obama then enjoyed a fairly typical bounce from his convention and it remains to be seen how what kind of bounce McCain will get
The Gallup poll is also essentially the same, although the Obama/Biden ticket has fallen below the 50% mark:
PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup Poll Daily tracking encompassing Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday’s interviewing shows Barack Obama retaining a six percentage point, 49% top 43%, lead over John McCain among registered voters.
This latest rolling average probably does not reflect much impact of the delayed opening of the Republican National Convention now underway in St. Paul, Minn. There was little convention activity Monday night due to Hurricane Gustav, and interviewing on Tuesday was, to a large degree, completed before the major prime time speeches at the convention were televised, particularly in the Midwest and Eastern portions of the country. A review of last week’s tracking during the Democratic convention shows that Obama did not begin to show major gains until the tracking averages reported on Thursday, covering the first three nights of the Denver convention. So it is possible that any potential McCain convention bounce may not be evident for a few days.
More specifically, there appears to be a great deal of anticipation for the prime time debut of the Republican vice presidential nominee, Gov. Sarah Palin, on Wednesday night. It is possible that her speech could receive record ratings as Americans tune in to find out more about the woman who was largely unknown until last week and who has dominated news coverage since her selection last Friday. Then, of course, McCain himself makes his acceptance speech on Thursday night. The potential impact of the Palin and McCain speeches may not be seen in the tracking data until the weekend.
At which point, we will notice one of two things. Either the Obama/Biden ticket will continue to build on it’s relative gains over the past week, or McCain’s convention bounce will wipe those gains out and the race will essentially be in the same place it was before the conventions started.
