A new poll from ABC News finds that the Presidential race is tied and, more interestingly, that John McCain has made substantial gains among female voters:
John McCain’s taken the better boost from the presidential nominating conventions, eroding Barack Obama’s advantage on change, improving on enthusiasm, moving away from George W. Bush — and advancing among white women with help from his surprise vice presidential pick.
Some of McCain’s biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which “hockey mom” Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty-seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain’s decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain’s advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he’s moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.
And McCain is looking good in the larger poll numbers as well:
The race overall enters its post-Labor Day leg as a close one, with two popular presidential candidates dividing the electorate. Registered voters split 47-46 percent between Obama and McCain; that’s tightened from an 8-point Obama lead in July to its closest since February, before either candidate secured his party’s nomination.
Among people most likely to vote the race has been close consistently; today it’s 49 percent for McCain, 47 percent for Obama, a scant 4-point gain in McCain’s support from its pre-convention level. McCain held a numerical edge, 48-47 percent, once before, in June. Given polling tolerances all these are the equivalent of a dead heat.
While this is true, the thing to look at when you’re looking at polling data this far from Election Day is where the trends lie, and, right now, they are all in John McCain’s favor.
