Below The Beltway

What a difference three days makes.

On Thursday, before John MCain made his acceptance speech and before Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday could be registered in the polls, it didn’t look at all like there would be much of a convention bounce for the McCain/Palin ticket. In the Rasmussen tracking polls, the Democratic ticket was leading by 4-5 points depending upon whether or not “leaners” were included. In the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, Barack Obama and Joe Biden held a seven point lead over the Republican ticket. The only hint that things might be swinging in John McCain’s direction came from a CBS News poll that showed the race tied at 42-42.

On Friday, the tracking polls showed some movement in McCain’s direction, but nothing substantial. Rasmussen had Obama/Biden up by 2 points, and the Gallup Poll had them up by four points. McCain was gaining ground, it seemed, but not enough to take the lead.

That continued on Saturday, with Rasmussen seeming to show the McCain bounce dying off, while Gallup showed the race tightening just bit.

Then, came yesterday…..

The Rasmussen tracking poll shows that the race was, once again, even and all of Obama’s post-DNC boune had been erased:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When “leaners” are included, it’s all even at 48%.

This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August

And the Gallup tracking poll showed John McCain with his first lead in race in months:

PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

(…)

McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

And then, most surprisingly of all, the latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows McCain and Palin surging ahead of the Democrats:

WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

And, since a picture is worth a thousand words, this graph of the RealClearPolitics polling average shows quite dramatically what has happened over the past two weeks:

For the moment, this race is in the same place it was before the conventions started and, in some sense, the same place it was for much of the summer. The difference this time is that the McCain campaign, clearly energized by the selection of Sarah Palin as the VP running mate, seems to be surging and at least one long-time Democrat seems to think the nature of the race has changed:

The Democrats are in trouble. Sarah Palin has totally changed the dynamics of this campaign.

Period.

Palin’s speech to the GOP National Convention on Wednesday has set it up so that the Republicans are now on offense and Democrats are on defense. And we don’t do well on defense.

Suddenly, Palin and John McCain are the mavericks and Barack Obama and Joe Biden are the status quo, in a year when you don’t want to be seen as defending the status quo.

From taxes to oil drilling, Democrats are now going to have to start explaining their positions.

Whenever you start having to explain things, you’re on defense.

It’s still too early, I think, to say that the nature of the race has changed that radically, but the signs are there. At the very least, it’s becoming clear that November is not going to be the Obama blowout that many, myself included, thought it would turn out to be.