Below The Beltway

Notwithstanding increasing evidence that John McCain may have changed the dynamic of the election with his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, followed by what turned out to be a fairly successful convention, the Presidential election in Virginia is still as close as ever.

The latest Rasmussen poll of the Old Dominion shows McCain and Obama in a statistical tie with less than two months to go until the election:

Former Governor Mark Warner was the Keynote Speaker at the Democratic National Convention, but the presidential race in Virginia is still as close as it was in August. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone in the state shows John McCain with 49% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 47%

hat’s little changed from a month ago. The candidates have not been separated by more than three percentage points since March.

The Democrat is viewed favorably by 57% of voters in Virginia and unfavorably by 44%, representing an improvement from the last poll conducted before his convention. McCain’s ratings are 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable, which has remained relatively unchanged.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it’s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor’s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

And a SurveyUSA poll released late Monday also showed McCain and Obama effectively tied in the battle for Virginia’s thirteen Electoral Votes:

In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey’s 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%.

Today’s data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain.

There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote.

There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs.

In other words, Virginia is as much of a battleground today as it was a month ago.