While there has been significant movement in both the Intrade numbers and the national polls over the past several weeks, that movement has yet to be reflected in the Electoral College estimates, most of which seem to be based on polls that took place before the full impact of the Vice-Presidential selections and party conventions could be measured. In fact, the Electoral College looks pretty much the same way it did in June, July, and August.
Here, for example, is the RealClearPolitics map as of today:
And here it is without toss-ups:
The biggest difference between this month and last month is that Pennsylvania, which had been leaning toward Obama all summer had clearly become a toss-up after looking at the most recent polls.
Similarly, North Carolina is now leaning Republican after having been a toss-up for most of the summer. Other states, like Indiana and Georgia haven’t been measured since the conventions and it seems unlikely that either one of them will go for Obama now.
What is clear is that this election is going to be fought in a small number of battleground states, including Virginia, where Obama, McCain, and Palin are all campaigning today, and Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Colorado — all of which remain incredibly close.
At this point, it’s anyone’s race and, just as in 2000 and 2004 it is entirely likely that a single state will decide who becomes the next President of the United States.
