It looks like John McCain’s post-Convention bounce is holding steady for the moment.
In the Rasmussen poll, which tracks likely voters, McCain and Obama continue to be tied:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 46% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 47%
Rasmussen also has this interesting observation about the gender breakdown:
A Washington Post poll generated comment yesterday by noting that White Women favor McCain. Rasmussen Reports polling has consistently shown a similar result, but it is important to note that there is nothing unusual about this finding. Four years ago, President Bush managed to defeat Senator John Kerry 55% to 44% among white women. Today’s tracking poll data shows McCain leading 51% to 44% among this group. Among all women, Obama leads by eight. Among men, McCain leads by eight.
Meanwhile, the Gallup tracking poll, which measures registered voters, continues to show John McCain and Sarah Palin with a five-point lead over their opponents:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds John McCain continuing to lead Barack Obama, 48% to 43% among registered voters.
The Sept. 7-9 average — spanning interviewing conducted Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday — finds little substantive change in the shape of the race compared to earlier this week, although each of the two candidate’s level of support has dropped a point compared to the Tuesday’s reported average. Nine percent of registered voters say they are undecided, refuse to state their preference, say they will vote for neither McCain nor Obama, or indicate they are voting for another candidate.
And, Gallup notes that there is unlikely to be much substantial movement for the next two weeks or so unless some major story breaks:
The race has now entered a period where there will, no doubt, continue to be intense interest in the campaign, but in which there are no major planned events until the first presidential debate, scheduled for Friday, Sept. 26, at the University of Mississippi in Oxford. Along with their running mates, Obama and McCain will continue to campaign unabated during this time period and will be spending tens of millions of dollars a week on advertising and voter contact. However, the experience of the past summer suggests that voter support levels do not tend to change dramatically during periods of time in which there are no major campaign events. Additionally, it may take a few additional days before it is possible to determine if McCain’s modest lead over Obama — developed as a bounce out of the GOP convention — will be sustained, or if it will fade
If McCain does sustain his lead heading into the debates, then it may be mid-October before we know where this race is really headed.
