Now that one week has passed since the Republican National Convention ended, it’s fair to say that we’ve seen the full extent of whatever poll bounce the McCain/Palin ticket may have gotten. The question that now arises is whether it will be good enough to change the momentum of the race.
For the seventh day in a row, the Rasmussen tracking poll shows that the race is effectively the same dead heat that it was before the party conventions began:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday, September 11 shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 46% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 48%
Rasmussen also reports that the four people on the two major-party tickets have essentially identical approval ratings:
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends). Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 56%, Joe Biden by 53%.
In the Gallup tracking poll, McCain and Palin continue to maintain a slight lead over Obama and Biden, although it has shrunk by one point:
PRINCETON, NJ — Registered voters continue to express a slight preference for John McCain (48%) over Barack Obama (44%) in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat.
These results, based on Sept. 8-10 polling, show McCain continuing to ride his post-convention bounce. He has held a statistically significant lead over Obama in each of the last four three-day rolling averages.
In addition, since Sept. 5 — the first night after the Republican National Convention — he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night’s polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now.
As noted yesterday, there isn’t anything major planned in the race until the first debate in two weeks, so it’s likely that McCain will go into that with a lead of some kind. Whether it will still be there after the debate is over is, of course, another question.
