One week out from the Republican National Convention, and two weeks out from their appearance in Dayton, Ohio, John McCain and Sarah Palin are continuing to maintain a lead in the polls.
In the Rasmussen poll, the Republican ticket has actually opened up a lead since yesterday over Barack Obama and Joe Biden:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.
McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied
As Rasmussen notes, a three-point jump in one day is unusual and it’s unclear whether this is a statistical anomaly or part of a real trend:
It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.
Rasmussen also released polls last night, though, that also show McCain/Palin gaining significant ground in Washington and New Mexico, two states that have been leaning Democratic on the Presidential level for quite some time so there may be a trend after all.
In the Gallup Tracking Poll, McCain/Palin have actually slipped a point since yesterday and lost ground since the beginning of the week:
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results for Sept. 9-11 show a slight, but not statistically significant, three percentage point advantage for John McCain over Barack Obama among registered voters, 48% to 45%.
These results, based on interviewing conducted Tuesday through Thursday, mark the first time since the Sept. 4-6 report that McCain does not have a statistically significant lead over Obama, and also reflect interviewing on Thursday that showed a very close race. It is unknown whether or not Thursday’s results may have reflected any possible impact of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s widely publicized television interviews with Charles Gibson of ABC News, which began to be broadcast Thursday evening.
The story of the presidential race this year since early June has been a tendency for candidate support levels to return to near parity after one or the other candidate moves into a brief lead, so the days ahead will show whether or not this contest will once again settle back into a “too close to call” structure.
As noted, the next event that could have a substantial impact on the race doesn’t occur for two weeks when Obama and McCain meet for the first of three debates.
September 12th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
OMG! They’re back. I no sooner reported The Democratic National Committee consigned to the dumper, than it popped up again that very night at the 9-11 Forum On Public Service & Civic Engagement. Held at Columbia University, Richard Stengel, managing editor of TIME moderated the forum along with Judy Woodruff, staged by Service Nation, “a new nationwide coalition.” Although not related to journalist Bob Woodruff, Judy is married to Al Hunt executive editor of The Bloomberg News, DC, bureau. Bloomberg also reported that, “she [Sarah Palin] was arrested 22 years ago on a drunken-driving charge.” I think it fair to say both Judy and Richard are committed liberals. Anyway, The DNC reemerged as The [International] Provisional People’s Collective Party, or PCP. And, guess what the PCP has in store: Political Officers, Commissars. The title Commissar refers to either a People’s Commissar (government), or a Political Commissar (military). In the Soviet Union, the Institute of Political Commissars was established to control the military. The state security organizations, KGB, etc., and or People’s Commissars also controlled the Soviet Army, together with the entire Soviet State. Compulsory Public Service is the future. All men will be judged politically; anti-Marxist sentiment will be crushed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XC2Bk8f8plU&feature=related But we first require a state organ with which to train the political functionaries who hold coequal rank and authority. Welcome comrade, to Hillary’s National Public Service Academy: http://theseedsof9-11.com