Apropos of my earlier discussion, these two charts illustrate quite nicely why it’s improbable that the Republicans will take back the House or Senate this year.
First, the incumbent re-election rates for the House of Representatives since 1964
Second, the same figures for the Senate:
In this year’s political climate, a change in leadership is, at best, unlikely.
September 13th, 2008 at 2:13 am
Doug,
I agree. It is extremely unlikely for the GOP to retake a majority in either house. In fact, I still think the Dems will extend their majority, although they may not get to the large majority (100ish seats) I was expecting a few weeks ago.
Another factor - The Reps retaking the House in this election would be flying in the face of history. In the 100 years since we have been electing Senators directly, the house has never flipped majorities unless the Senate did first. Never. Not even once. It takes a partisan tidal wave to flip majorities in the House, and that wave always flips the Senate first. As you point out in the other post, the Dems have a huge structural advantage in this cycle in the Senate. It would take a a “Foley-gate” level of scandal to keep them from increasing their majority in the Senate.