Yesterday’s Gallup Daily tracking polls seems to indicate that the McCain/Palin bounce is officially over:
PRINCETON, NJ — The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama regaining a slight, although not statistically significant, edge over John McCain, 47% to 45%, among registered voters, marking the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a one percentage point margin over Obama.
From a broad perspective, the race remains a statistical tie. But there has been a general drift towards Obama since McCain moved to a five-point lead over Obama through the weekend after the GOP convention.
Today’s report includes two days of interviewing conducted after reports of the collapse of Wall Street financial institutions and changes in the stock market began to dominate the news on Monday. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that in each of these individual days (Monday and Tuesday) consumer ratings of the U.S. economy have become more negative. Similarly, in each of these individual days’ interviewing, Obama has led McCain in election tracking. There is thus a correlation between the bad financial news and Obama’s gains, although the data do not allow us to conclude definitively that there is a causal connection between the two. Throughout the campaign, Obama has generally held an edge over McCain when voters are asked who could best handle the U.S. economy, although McCain gained on the economic dimension in polling conducted immediately after the GOP convention.
The crisis on Wall Street appears to be benefiting Obama right now.
